Cory Diary : Bitching my favorite again

Regulars will know I am a great fan of Malls and do not believe we will have "Amazon Experience" in metropolitan Singapore.  I started investing CMT and FCT only in 2014.  Strong malls like CMT and FCT have relatively lower yields. Six years have passed since GFC before I realised sector in the market that I have greatly misunderstood. Yes, I am a slow learner. However, is better be late than never. Total profit is Strong Five Digits returns today.

Why the article today ? Well, CMT has a large spike of 11 cent today hitting $2.57. FCT has a good day too.  This quickly bring CMT yield to-date to roughly 4.5%. If one could remember when I blogged about Yield Anchoring this could be what I am expecting of ever lower yield. Will the price go higher to the unknown since is at all time high or it will crash soon?

Took a look on the DPU and compute the yield from it. To hit $2.80 (arbitrary), CMT yield would drops to near 4%. Is this enough for "kiasi" me ? I will be happy compared to SSB or Bank Interests surely. 

What is the chance that it will crash from $2.57 ? Well, DPU has to fall. Which mean Malls Business have to fall largely. Make sense to you now ? Will you buy more instead ?

Cory

2019-0606

Cory Diary : Leapfrog your wealth

There are ways to leapfrog our wealth. Coming from below middle income family, and choosing a down-to-earth wife ( hee hee ), marriage do helps but inheritance from our families are out. Neither do our families have business acumen. So I would say today my siblings and we are above middle income. Hey, that's what makes Singapore incredible isn't it ? As long we work hard and smart, with a little luck and opportunity, we are contented.

As previously blogged, I am a "Value Saver" but I aren't frugal. I can spurt a dinner that cost few hundreds, and renovation in good 5 digits. As a value/dividend stock investor, this bring me quite a good sum to my net-worth. Of-course this won't happen fast enough if I do not have monthly salary and saving, and then equity investment.

Now, I can add that Property Investment as another option to propel. See chart below. With the mark-to-market valuation based on recent residential transactions of surrounding properties on the same development. Of-course some friends would say as long I don't sell, is only paper gain. This actually applies to my dividend stocks too. Nevertheless, Net-worth is the market value you have. 

My thinking is whether we sell it or not is subjective. Holding cash in an inflationary environment is losing money too so I rather put my money to work continuously. Unless we are doing short term speculative trade, taking profit to realize the gain is cutting our game short as a good hedge against inflation.

Property provides a strong underlying asset base so I am in the mentality of "Never Sell". It can be also be an insurance that if needed, I could use it for downgrade therefore the more I would like to hold it for long term appreciation to be meaningful.

What I find amazing from this experience is how fast the pace of  property appreciation and loan leverage can do to one's net-worth. No wonder our government needs to introduce curbs to rein them in to ensure more stable market.  As for another sharing based on my limited experience, I realised the surrounding properties about few hundred meters away do not appreciate much at all for the same period. A real example of location of property matters in value appreciation.


In summary, the list of Wealth Accumulation. 

1. Monthly Salary - Yes
2. Property Investment - Yes
3. Stock Investment - Yes
4. Marriage
5. Saving - Yes
6. Inheritance
7. Business


Cory
2019-0602

Cory Diary : Mexico tariffs - Cory Performance 2019 May

This can be viewed as a continuation of STI Volatility article here. This update unfortunately faced Mexico Tariffs on the last trading day of the month and we see adverse dip in ST Index. This also marked Sell-in-May and go away complete.

Had a few conference calls with my colleagues in preparation for China Tariffs and now have to absorb the impact of Mexico Tariffs.  Trump is keeping my brain busy. We know from day one that there will be some exodus of manufacturing out-of-China however how much and how long it takes still to be determine.

This basically boils down to what level of manufacturing is considered Not made in China. And everyone probably trying to do the minimum cut-off and finish the final product somewhere else. Asean, Taiwan, Korea, Japan and Mexico probably benefits the most from this trade war in term of job creation. This may means well for Singapore as regional HQ. Hong Kong may lose out.

We do know that if we are kept long enough outside China and if deep enough, we probably won't be moving back to China. For America market, naturally Mexico will be an ideal site due to abundance labors and lands. However for supply chain eco-system to work more smoothly, proximity to China will be better.

What will be the end game will be interesting to find out. The world may never be the same again.

Bye ... baby awakes now.

Cory

2019-0601