Cory Diary : Compiling NetLink NBN Tr

NetLink NBN Tr - closer review

IPO price S$0.81 at lower band range. S$2.3 billion IPO is the biggest in Singapore since 2011. Singtel will hold about 24.99 per cent of the units in NetLink NBN Trust, which will own all of the units of NetLink Trust.

Consists of 10 Central Offices and approximately 76,000 km of fibre cable, 16,200 km of ducts, and 62,000 manholes then. Providing services for 89% of the residential homes in Singapore (2017). NLT is the sole network company for Next Gen NBN, it dominates the wholesale provision of dark fibre connections for residential premises.

3Q18 earnings came in at $21.7 million, 32.5% higher than IPO forecast, due to lower operating and staff costs. "The first distribution period will be for the period from 19 June 2017 to 31 March 2018 and will be paid on or before 29 June 2018. However, July'17 is when it get listed. About 8 month plus.

Unsecured loan 588,542,000 @ 2.53%
Units : 3,896,971,100
Depreciation : $36,897,000


Annualized Yield ( Price 81 cts )

Dividend cost @5% Yield  ~ $158M
Expect to achieve from cash flow.

Dividend cost @6% Yield ~ $190M. DPU will be 4.86 cents.

High side would be @7% yield. ~ S$221M cost. Stars need to be aligned to hit this. Alternatively, stock price has to go down to 69.4 cents if we maintain 4.86 cents dividends.

The upside is stable population or growth projection. Stable Earning. Low maintenance. Singtel major shareholder. Control of operating cost is especially key. The other will be commercial space expansion.The hope is most of the infra can last more than 15 Years. Therefore maintenance cost will be relatively low supporting cash flow for dividends.

The risk could be interest rate which will be few years later relative to earning. Technology and Competitor  not in visible horizon. However, infra cost needs to be monitored that could affect earning. Will be interesting to read next earning report and the first actual dividend for the 8 months.


Cory
20180415

Cory Diary : Is this a Start of Trade War ?

Just came back from hiking in Jia Yi farmland recently. 24c and windy weather. Excellence walk on some unplanned and very secluded locations. Used pedometer and the max day count is 20268 which could be more than 12 km. Quite an adventure I would say especially walking pass 3 unchained street dogs and a traditional cemetery hill plus a 1 km detour. I do not find it appropriate to take a snap ... kind of regretted.

This is probably the kind of life i love to have when retired. Travelling around the country and going to unknown places. Of course safely. Free from the dynamics of the market especially recent trade disputes while my money works for me. A trial run i guess.

We are in early rattle of possible trade war between China and America. And if this further deepen we could see significant impacts to trade between the two countries. Some economists think Russia, Australia and others may benefits. I think there maybe short spike of demand but we could see a global reduction in demand after due to more expensive cost inputs to production reducing affordability. Therefore recession could be on the card to many countries since America is a key driver to world consumption. China is no small market either even though the goods are of lower pricing relatively.

I do not see how Trump and aides would come down from this stance. There is some fair logic in his argument and he tries to do what he says he would. People who are against him will be fired. So the only main recourse I think would be to watch China closely till the next presidential election. Whether PRC would want a peaceful development for next 20 years or a major detour they have to do their calculation as manufacturing base will re-locate away from China to other Asian locations as time goes by. Once they start moving it will be hard for them to come back.

What i did is to build up my war chest for now. Potential max dividend from SG equity reduced to less than 38K. So if I am wrong, I won't be too bad. With SSB, further Treasury and FD, this would help mitigate. I also took profit from some of my US holding. I guess this level of cash is good for stable property installments ... and time for more local hikings in Taiwan.



Cory
20180408

Cory Diary : Investment Journey

We have been flat this year so far. That's alright. We can't expect every year to do well. I have been cutting loses, taking profits and re-balancing some of my positions. And just went below 45K dividends mark. Let's see how i can make it up near term. Cash is still high up. Maybe SSB should also up the 100K limit instead of just enlarging the pool size.

So what's the title about today ? I derived something new this morning. Investment is a journey. The enjoyment of the Process of stock selection, dividends collection, reports reading and news catch. The exchanges and the market participation. Maybe more. Financial Freedom is just the mean. Get it ?

Happy Journey !

Cory

20180404