Cory Diary : S&P 500 Gains in 2025: Why Forex Matters

Why Your S&P 500 Investment in SGD Feels Less Rewarding Despite All-Time Highs in 2025

Introduction

If you invested 100,000 SGD in the S&P 500 at the start of 2025, you might expect a solid return by mid-year given the U.S. stock market’s strong performance and record highs. However, when you check your portfolio in Singapore dollars, the gains might feel surprisingly modest. Why is that?

This article unpacks how currency fluctuations can impact your investment returns and why, despite the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs, your SGD-denominated returns may seem disheartening.

The S&P 500’s Strong Performance in 2025

The S&P 500, a benchmark for U.S. equities, has delivered a total return (including dividends) of approximately 7.18% year-to-date (YTD) as of early July 2025. This reflects solid price appreciation and dividend income, driven by strong corporate earnings and positive economic data.

For a USD-based investor, this is an attractive return in just over half a year.

The Forex Factor: SGD vs. USD

However, as a Singapore-based investor, you need to consider the currency exchange rate because the S&P 500 is traded in U.S. dollars.

At the start of 2025, 1 SGD was worth about 0.7572 USD.

By mid-July 2025, the SGD strengthened to around 0.7808 USD.

This means the Singapore dollar appreciated roughly 3.13% against the U.S. dollar during this period.

How Forex Affects Your Returns

When your SGD strengthens against USD, your USD investments are worth less when converted back to SGD — even if the USD investment itself has gained value.

To calculate your effective return in SGD:

Start with the S&P 500’s 7.18% USD return.

Adjust for the 3.13% appreciation of SGD against USD.

The net result is an approximate 3.9% YTD return in SGD terms.

So, your initial 100,000 SGD investment would have grown to about 103,900 SGD by mid-July 2025, less than the 107,180 SGD you might expect if you ignored forex.

Why Does This Matter?

Currency movements can significantly impact international investments. Even when markets perform well, a stronger home currency can reduce your returns when converted back.

For Singapore investors, the SGD’s appreciation against the USD in 2025 has offset nearly half of the S&P 500’s gains.

Conclusion

While the U.S. stock market has hit record highs and delivered solid returns in 2025, your SGD-denominated investment’s performance is tempered by currency effects. This highlights the importance of considering forex risk in global investing.

If you’re investing internationally, it’s wise to monitor currency trends or consider hedging strategies to protect your returns.

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2025-0714

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : How to use XIRR (Excel )

What is XIRR?

XIRR stands for **Extended Internal Rate of Return**. It is a financial function widely used to calculate the annualized return of a series of irregular cash flows over time. Unlike the regular IRR, which assumes all cash flows are spaced equally (like monthly or annually), XIRR handles actual dates for each cash flow — making it ideal for real-world scenarios such as investments with multiple deposits and withdrawals at different points in time.

Why is it useful?

XIRR gives investors and analysts a precise way to measure the true annualized performance of an investment when contributions and redemptions do not occur at regular intervals. For example, if you invest different amounts at different dates and withdraw parts of your investment later, XIRR calculates the single annual rate of return that equates your total inflows and outflows over time.

How is it used for single and multiple stocks?

When calculating the XIRR for a **single stock**, it is common and more intuitive to **extend the end date to the end of the calendar year**. This projects the unrealized value forward to provide a comparable annualized return figure for the full year, even if you haven’t sold the stock yet.

Similarly, for a **portfolio with multiple stocks**, you track all cash flows — buys, sells, dividends — with their actual dates, then extend the final balance to a common end date, usually the year-end. This gives you an annualized return for the entire portfolio that you can compare against benchmarks or other investments.

Strong for tracking multi-year performance

One of XIRR’s biggest strengths is its ability to **combine performance across multiple years** into a single **compound annual growth rate (CAGR)**. This means that even if you hold stocks for many years with varying purchases, dividends, or partial sales along the way, XIRR shows your true annualized return over the whole period, factoring in the exact timing of every cash flow. This makes it far more realistic than simply looking at average yearly returns.

Where is it used?

XIRR is commonly used in personal investing, portfolio performance tracking, private equity, venture capital, and fund management. It is a standard function in spreadsheet tools like Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets, where you simply provide the actual cash flow dates and amounts to calculate your annualized return.

Example of a Single Stock

Even today is not last day 31st Dec 2025, when computing XIRR YTD, use 31st Dec 2025. In that way you will get return of more logical 1% instead of 5.3%.

Example of using Year End Date.

Cory Diary

2025-0713

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : A Portfolio Chat Turned Reflection

STI, Banks, and the Psychology of Profit: A Portfolio Chat Turned Reflection

Over the weekend, our Telegram chat lit up with reflections on the market's recent push toward the 4,000 mark — largely powered by non-banks — and the strategic return of banks to lead the charge. Some joked: “Is this the big boys’ plan? Push with non-banks first, then let banks take the wheel again?”

Behind the humor, a few truths emerged.

Banks: Bedrock of Stability

Banks remain the cornerstone of Singapore's market — net profit leaders and closely aligned with government policy. As one member put it, "Nothing will be allowed to rock them." Even amidst inflation and market jitters, they remain resilient — and attractively valued.

The Case for Regional Growth

One interesting idea floated: to really grow, SGX needs to integrate more deeply with other Southeast Asian exchanges — and allow more access to our listed giants from neighboring investors. The logic: We already have the region’s largest net income earners; let others buy in too.

Valuation, Rebalancing & Portfolio Philosophy

As portfolios hit all-time highs (ATH), some members talked about trimming exposure. One shared being over 50% allocated to DBS — not out of fear, but for balance and mental peace. “You wait until stress to rebalance? Too late liao.”

The group revisited the ever-relevant tension between max returns and quality of life. “If I wanted max returns, I wouldn’t have retired early,” said another. “Family, siblings, parents — then me.”

Rebalancing wasn’t about fear. It was about discipline and maintaining the ability to act when others panic. Or as someone quoted Buffett: “Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”

Volatility: Friend or Foe?

We all love our winners. But what happens when markets fall 30–50% like during the GFC? Even Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dropped 50% — three times. It’s not just about knowing, it’s about surviving. Having the mental stamina to click “Buy” when others are fleeing.

As one put it:

“Everyone can have education, knowledge, and experience. But without mental strength, you won’t click the button.”

Closing Thought: Leave Some on the Table

Taking profit isn’t weakness — it’s strategic. You leave some shares for others to buy. Let the stock rise further. After all, "Elon never shared much of his profits, so he gets a lot of green eyes. Google, Microsoft, Meta — their founders hold much less now."

Let others win too. It keeps the market moving forward.

Cory Diary

2025-0707

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates

The strategy for 2025 has more or less stabilized. There are a few key segments in tracked portfolio:

1. Income-Earning Stocks (Primarily Banks)

The first segment consists of income-earning stocks, mainly banks. These stocks have strong earnings and pay attractive dividends, making up more than half of the portfolio’s allocation. Currently, they are relatively cheap given the present risk levels. Whether this will change in the future depends on technological or regulatory impacts, if any.

The main position here is DBS, which has performed well so far this year. OCBC has been somewhat muted but remains a reliable dividend payer. Both positions may be reduced during rebalancing. Each time this happens, the overall dividend yield is affected, as replacements typically offer lower yields. There is a cost to this approach.

2. REITs

The second segment is REITs. While there are several REITs in the portfolio, only two have core allocations: FCT and MIT. Both are defensive and strong dividend payers. Interestingly, MIT has been offering high yields for some time. In recent rebalancing, some bank stocks were sold to increase FCT holdings, primarily to mitigate risk. While their earnings can't compete with banks, their businesses are much more stable.

3. US Big Tech

The third segment focuses primarily on US Big Tech. These companies generate substantial earnings, and I expect their stocks to consistently outperform the SGX market over the mid to long term. As mentioned earlier, this is a "peanut butter" strategy, with the latest acquisition being Apple (AAPL). Allocation to this segment has increased to over 13%, with a 15% target in mind, depending on available funding.

Within this segment, weightings vary based on the probability of success. For example, Microsoft offers consistent growth expectations, while Nvidia offers explosive, but less predictable, returns. With six stocks in this category now, I have built a solid US Tech foundation. Now, it's a matter of seeing which "horse" will race towards the inner circle!

4. Other Opportunities

The final segment is the "Other" category, which is more opportunistic and focused on trading income. Among all segments, this one will see more rebalancing and churns whenever opportunities arise. From past experience, the Big Tech segment doesn’t perform well in this trading strategy, which has driven my cost structure relatively high. Biggest winner in this category is Keppel. Poor decision is Sheng Siong which i sold off too early.

The Gold ETF is in a bottom-building phase. BABA SDR is another holding I like, as it avoids the need for currency exchange, though returns have been disappointing. Both positions are small and mainly serve diversification purposes. I am still exploring or waiting for the return of iBit.

Performance and Lessons Learned

Year-to-date, the portfolio has achieved an XIRR of 5.3%, using December 31, 2025, as the end date. The income segment remains strong, and I hope the market will be kind enough to allow additional funding for US Big Tech.

One key lesson learned is that it is not meaningful to keep large amounts of USD in the account due to currency exposure. The USD has been weakening for the past few months and is unlikely to strengthen in the near term. Therefore, it’s important to invest available funds in stocks whose price appreciation can offset currency depreciation. As a result, US Treasury and US income stocks are less logical for this portfolio. As of today, US Tech stocks, even after accounting for currency weakening, are showing solid five-digit profits.

Hope you enjoyed my sharing!

Cory Diary

2025-0705

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Family Expenses update

To see past family expense tracking, make sure you click the expense label in Desktop mode to see all related articles. The monthly expense fluctuation can varied widely so i thought this is a better tracking measure.

The trend seems to stabilize around $120k on trailing annual basis which meet our expectation. If we could continue this same level of budget control, the trend will go towards $110k. The key controls are lesser food delivery, reduce air-con use and transportation cost.

The cost structure has potential to go back to 2 years ago level but if we are not careful it can spiral out of control again.

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2025-0704

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Portfolio Expenses YTD

Trading Expenses

A quick peek into trading expenses — it has hit slightly more than $3K, which marks the half-year point. Some people may find it excessive. Some traders probably think it’s not that much. Personally, unless it is way out of line, it’s just part of managing my portfolio business. A business.

In the early part of the year, I made some major shifts or continued efforts from last year. I sold down Ascendas REIT, which had been a core part of my portfolio, and switched most of it into banks.

In April, the portfolio underwent another large rebalancing — raising more cash from REITs to buy more banks and Keppel. I then ring-fenced most of the REITs into FCT and MIT as a defensive play. These actions basically accounted for half of the expenses.

The other half mainly went into exploring the US markets, which currently make up only 13% of the portfolio. I experimented with Vanguard ETFs, US Treasuries ETFs, ASML, and TSMC before settling on a US Big Tech peanut butter strategy. My latest silly move was to trade some NVDA, META, and MSFT — only to regret it and buy them back. This kind of approach doesn’t work well in the US market during the build-up phase. Another factor was using a non-custodian account, which probably cost me $500 or more.

What does the second half look like?

Most likely, there won’t be much increase in the US market allocation since the strategy has been finalized. As for the SGX side, it’s still uncertain — but any impact will be less of a concern since it will be done under a custodian account.

That’s all for today’s sharing.

Cory Diary

2025-06-28

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Disclaimer:

The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible for any errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Recovering Salaried Income Loss from Retirement

As a salaried worker, once our saving/investment pass a certain point, one may realised the monthly income we are getting in exchange for our productive hours relative to our portfolio size through years of saving/investment will get smaller over time.

When this happened, it maybe a good time to start preparation activities for managing one's investment portfolio to generate sufficient additional income to cover the income loss and retirement option may opens up. Depending how large is your portfolio or net worth, the needs of how much is enough is subject to individual situation.

Some may prefer drawdown plan, some want at least maintain portfolio to grow with inflation while there may some who want the portfolio to grow after expenses. This ties to expense needs and  investment risk.

For my situation, if I am to park most of my net worth into saving, is unlikely I will have enough to support my family in retirement. Even drawdown plan of the portfolio can be quite risky. How we adjust our investment is individual. There is no one size fit all model unless we go to the lowest common denominator which requires huge sum of money and therefore unlikely one can retire.

There are a few taps we can consider as a salaried worker. See chart.

The left is asset allocation, and on the right is the cash generated from each asset. The main asset which is Equity, covers much bigger % slices of the cash flow needs. The least productive in the chart is gold which generate no income.

Fixed deposits in percentage wise comparison between the two pie chart only generate half it's allocation. Normal saving account is the worst which only support 0.2% of cash flow despite 4.4% allocation of net worth. So to me I always need to actively manage the minimal amount with buffer to support working cash needs for bills and immediate expenses. Right now 4.4% is still too high. Unless one has  significant wealth this has to be actively managed to low single digit. How low, only you can tell.

We can also optimize allocation in T-bills, SSB and Pension. The hope is that with the extra time in retirement, the additional cash we can generate from the portfolio could cover the income loss by moving them to more cash generative assets. This has to be done safely to ensure liquidity and market risk.

If we can execute this correctly, the return maybe greater. One maybe financially better off retired than continued working. Even if income is lower, it maybe worth our while if we have other priorities for the later half of our life. Do your math. 

Something to think about for fellow retirees. And again always dyodd as this tie to individual risk/needs, and I have to say, don't follow me ! I could be logically in error, mathematically wrong or my portfolio size is large enough for me to do what I wanted.

Cory Diary

2025-0615

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Dividend updates

Did a slight revamp on how I track Rental Income to align to dividend received which is after cost. Which is net of maintenance, interest portion of monthly instalment, refurbishment, property tax and income tax.  In this way, the personal cashflow is clean ( WYSIWYG ).

To keep information more private, excluded the annual returns. Instead I would want to reflect the total dividend exceeded 700k on cumulatively basis.

What is surprising to me is that remainder of income in relative proportion to dividend is a subset after I adjust the data on rental to remove expected cost in total. This different stream of incomes are for reference purposes against dividend amount.

Not in table is CPF RA which will only be available at Age 65. Also not in table is capital gain/loss from equity. Theoretically, the latest update mean I am financially independent. ( Returns > Family Expense )

I am not resting here, and the hope is that on US Market can do some magic for me long term with some fund apportioned to it.

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2025-0608

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : DrawDowns

Year 2025 is interesting year because it was beset with risks and shocks to our Portfolio. People who left the field may find it hard to come back if they sell out earlier. The volatility was man-made unlike GFC 2008. There are no fundamental hit on the broader economy, and employment is still in good territory. This form a baseline of how fast the stock market can recover from fear each time shock hits the market.

After several emotional shake-up, the equity market continues to be supported back-up. There are 5 drawdowns during Corydorus lifetime investment portfolio and it won't be the last. How we manage our emotions could be the key on hanging on to the market with the needed size and resolve. Year 2022 on annual basis looks to be a deep drawdown than others but that is because it ended on year end. In fact the portfolio faces quite a few deep drawdowns during some of the years too except it closes higher by year end. The devil in the detail and not look at the chart plainly. The effort into keep the performance afloat every year not seen as is hidden away from most viewers.

How do you manage emotion maybe the key. Getting into the right business, diversification, right price, feel of probability, macro view and managing our cashflow are few of my styles which touches my vines, and passion. This works for me so far to stay in Business and like many businesses we may have to be on constant moves to manage it. Nothing is free.

Cory Diary

2025-0528

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Holding Underperforming Stocks

FHT just got privatization offer. Should investors be overjoyed ? Maybe entry price is a factor and strictly speaking got a lot to do with your karma.

However, what i can say is as below table.

Opportunity cost is real. Not everyone is a Meta stock. We hope the one that put inside our fridge is one.

Chances are not good. Every year could be a pain mathematically if we hold on to a stock for 9 years for 27% absolute gain. Some will think is still good ....

If we have unlimited fund, I don't disagreed. Fact is how much funds available for investment is really limited for most of us. Another stock if give 7% compounded will give a difference of 57% more gains. Time is a critical factor in every investment that one should evaluate.

Cory Diary

2025-0514

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Liquid Assets Allocation

This is a special segment of ratio reference to take a quick look when we compared Fixed returns (excluding FD ), Gold and Investment Accounts against Equities. They are generally quite liquid. The reason to exclude FD is that they are funds segregated from investments. Fixed Deposits are Emergency Funds of about 4 years. Not a lot in my situation.

What can I read from the table ?

1. There is theoretical 20% reallocation as War Chest from T-Bills/SSB and Multipliers.

    In practice, SSB which are receiving 3%+ will be quite hard to re-balance out.

    T-Bills will be much easier.

2. The Dividend generated are more than enough to pay down the loan.

    Yet think through what to do with excess from recent Tariff re-balance exercise.

3. Growth comes from US Market and Banks. Banks only 42% in this Chart perspective.

Poking on ChatGPT

Here's what I got in perspective. I did not mention my age.

Your current allocation reflects a stable, income-focused, and low-volatility portfolio—which is generally appropriate for a retiree. Here’s a breakdown of strengths and potential concerns:

✅ Strengths ("Greatness")

1. Strong Dividend Focus (Banks + REITs = 63.5%)

Likely generates a consistent income stream.

REITs add yield with partial inflation protection.

Banks in Asia, in particular, tend to be solid dividend payers.

2. Capital Preservation (T-Bills / SSB / Multipliers = 22.6%)

Provides a buffer against market volatility.

Offers liquidity and a safety net, ideal for drawdowns in retirement.

3. Low Exposure to Speculative/High-Risk Assets

Very limited allocation to volatile sectors or emerging tech/growth equity.

Suitable for your risk profile and need for capital stability.

📌 Suggestions (if alignment with goals allows):

Trim banks slightly (e.g., to ~35%) to reduce sector risk.

Reallocate 3–5% into global diversified ETFs or quality growth equity, especially US or global leaders.

Top up gold to ~3–5% if you’re concerned about inflation, currency shifts, or want a deeper non-correlated hedge.

Cheers.

Cory Diary

2025-0508

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : FCT Review - 1H25

This Table kind of summaries the strong performance of FCT reit. I like the cost of debt trend chart which gives me a good view the direction of the cost structure. With this charts, is not hard not to beat past DPUs.

The past recent acquisition of Nex and now the South Wing of Northpoint City have significant mitigate the concentration risk of the Reit.

Results

Risks

One of the few reits that has recovered and will thrive in the future. Having said that, there is risk of JB competition. Nothing is totally free in this world I guess in investment. Considering the risk and reward, is a calculated risk for me to have a stabel generating reit with some growth. FCT reit fits the bill well. And with Oil price low, bill costs will not be elevated too. I just have to size it appropriately to my own needs.

Investment

Current yield per my note is 5.3%. When Tariffs War was in quite deep crisis, I rebalanced half of my FCT holding to get stronger yield from other beaten counters after Ex-Rights. Subscibed a large amount of FCT rights shares in excess. This fill back some of those I sold at much lower price. This scenario seldom happens for this class of reit due to market was beaten down. People who has cash want to buy other heavily beaten down stocks. Those who don't have cash at that time, could not re-balance or borrow more to buy the rights. On hindsight, I should have applied even more.

FCT is my best performing Reit YTD for a low yield reit. This gives another lesson that in returns wise you can achieve greatness without taking much risk.

Cheers.

Cory Diary

2025-0504

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Net Worth update

Quick check, 4 months since i last updated. Quite an amount of the equity investment recovered. Some of the major expenses are also captured. More to come ... . I thought is a good time to take a good look at where am I on Net Worth specifically since I have retired. In absolute -1.3% YTD. Which is still ok considering the On-going Tariff War. It can be much worst. The strategy to remain focus on dividend returns play a key mental support role I guess. 

Re-balancing

So the good news is from the recent tariff sell down, there is not much worry from my side. I still do sizeable manevour to mitigate and taking opportunity on equity side. As you can see from the chart, a dip and a rebound. On the US market side exposure, peanut butter strategy seems to work well for me and changes are in that direction. Effort wise is minimal.

One point to add is that recent sell-down by Mr Market helps to futher increase my annual dividend return without much new fund allocation. I do this by re-allocation of equity and some funds buying lows from investment accounts. I realised investors for some reason will just keep selling down stocks even when the fundamental of the companies are strong. They could be on margin call, leverage fear, or maybe insitutional actions. God Knows ! Ofcourse we need to have standby Warchest or additional funds to take advantage of it. 

Expenses

Few critical expenses like child private school fee and tax allocation especially are considered. I have also decided to remain about 4 years of family expenses in low yield returns. There is plan to increase my rental income. This is still in work-in-progress. If successful, would help to cover my annual family expenses firmly. Other new expenses are two new term insurance which i feel needed. This is mitigated by paying slightly higher on monthly basis.

Format

For future reporting, I am considering to simplify the Net Worth Chart as I realised stacking line chart seems not as intuitive. I need to find time away from my growing personal allocation to gardening .... . My latest assignment ... or hobby.

Cory Diary

2025-0503

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Trade War - CheckMate Day 4

When Trump started the Trade War in his 2nd Term, Canada and Mexico were the primary candidates. What most did not notice is China got hit 10% Tariff without any discussion. When the tussle began within Amercas, China got hit another 10% and again without any discussion.

When comes to political and values alignment, China is a party communist regime who always try to undermine USA in everyway they can. Europe, Canada, Mexico or rest of Asia are mainly democratic countries. Everyone trades with USD currency. 

When Canada, Mexico and EU and most countries accomodate for negotiation, Trump moves against China. His primary target. The way Trump or Vance communicate, clearly there is no plan for credible negotiation. In fact, there is no need. The pace it escalate the tariffs later on are no-brainer. He has check-mate the Chinese. Trump can play this game how he likes it now.

CCP is in precarious situation. Will it ends with a better world ? My portoflio remains. Stay out of China. Is not just an economic issue. Is whether USA remains the only Superpower in the next 100 years. Trade War maybe just another misnomer on hindsight. The only thing holding USA back is itself.

Cory Diary

2025-0418

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Tariff Crisis Day 3 Correction Phase

The global market has entered a correction phase, marked by a significant decline of about 20%. This downturn is not solely driven by economic fundamentals but also by geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions.  This escalation highlights the challenges faced by investors in navigating such a volatile environment.

China Will Lose Scenario

From the communications so far, it appears that Trump's strategy involves isolating China economically. China seems aware of this approach, which complicates the possibility of reaching a trade agreement. The U.S. has signaled to other countries not to retaliate, suggesting that any nation not aligning with U.S. policies could face significant consequences. This dynamic suggests that the conflict may not escalate into a full-blown trade war involving multiple countries, as China might bear the brunt of the isolation.

Quick Result

In this phase, Trump is likely to seek quick results, potentially through simplified agreements with willing parties. Countries like Singapore might capitalize on this opportunity by negotiating favorable terms. However, nations seeking more exceptions could face delays and less favorable conditions. The urgency to achieve these agreements means that the bar for negotiations will be lower, and time is of the essence for all parties involved.

Trading Plan

Given the current market conditions, my strategy involves pacing my investments carefully. The plan is to expand my portfolio's dividend yield by rebalancing from safe stocks to those that have been sold down. This approach is particularly beneficial when fully deployed, but it requires careful attention to diversification. While it's tempting to focus on high-yield blue chip stocks, maintaining a balanced portfolio is crucial. The pace of investment must be measured, as the downtrend could be prolonged due to unforeseen scenarios.

Cory Diary

2025-0412

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Tariff Crisis Day 2 Preparation

As expected, after capturing the financial status before Day One of the Reciprocal Tariff impact, the portfolio immediately turned negative on the first trading day. Changes made included rebalancing funds internally and eliminating non-core stocks. Portfolio snapshot here.

Yesterday, the portfolio ended with a -2.9% YTD return, mainly due to exposure to the US market and the impact on banks. The US-traded BABA also dropped steeply, which likely signals that the Hong Kong market may follow with further selling. This could imply that Singapore banks will continue to be sold down due to regional ripple effects.

Historically, steep sell-offs tend to bottom out only after even safe assets are impacted—often because investors need to raise cash or seek safety. Hopefully, we won't reach that level, but it would indicate a more secure bottom if we do. Now, we watch to see how many countries align with the trend—likely most will, except perhaps the EU and China.

Day One Actions

Rebalanced portfolio with increased allocation to banks due to the sell-off, while REITs held up well.

Raised additional funds by selling more REIT shares.

Day Two Actions ( Opportunistic )

Dividends Expansion Plan

This step requires tapping into new funding sources. Often, even when we have the net worth, much of it is locked up in insurance, pension funds, living expenses, loan allocations, emergency reserves, etc. In my case, I've even pre-planned 5 years of funding. Coincidentally, this mirrors Suze Orman-style guidance—perhaps a reflection of a retirement mindset, where we no longer rely on active income.

I planned this 5-year runway around my loan repayments and compounding passive income, which helps balance out expenses. Everyone’s situation is different, but I’ve found 5 years to be a solid benchmark for myself.

Based on that, the funding I may free up is roughly 26% of my current equity investment value. I plan to break this into five tranches. Once fully deployed, I hope to increase my annual dividend by 50%, which would be a strong stretch for this funding.

We could end up in a situation of large capital losses, but significantly increased dividends through averaging down. Mentally, one needs to be ready for this. Of course, if we get a V-shaped recovery mid-way, averaging up will feel much better emotionally.

What's missing? A watchlist. I've been struggling with this, and it will now be my priority.

There’s no plan to further invest in the US market at this point; any growth there will come organically. There may be a rebalancing from TLT later.

For now, hold tight!

Cory Diary

2025-0405

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates

Like to take a snapshot of the portfolio with the reciprocal tariff implementation effected. 

Key Changes are

1.    Clearing of Ascendas Reit

2.    Increase of Mapletree Industrial Reit

3.    Rebalance of some OCBC for DBS

YTD XIRR 1.1% which is more than 3% behind STI. The weaker performance is mainly due to US Market exposure. The impact is larger than S&P500 due mainly to Magnificent stocks. Allocation wise is low double digits of the portoflio.

The Strategy remains is to hedge the portfolio against different segment of the market. Reit vs Banks vs US. In-addition outside this portfolio, other than fixed incomes, is the recent addition of Gold against some foreign currency. This is quite new so more like testing water. I did some new ground on TLT earlier and this also help to hedge against US Market volatility. Which can become vital bullet should I need to average down on US stocks.

How will the Tariffs scale of impacts be like .... I am still unsure .... maybe it doesn't matter as long we focus on the business and ensure we have bullets to buy low.

Cory Diary

2025-0403

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Q1'25 Equity Performance

Quarterly performance review is not something i do often nowsaday. There usually needs to be motivation behind. We end the week with large volatility in the US stock Market. Big Tech got hit pretty bad and it could be a good thing considered the valuation is rich. Where there are low valuation out there, in a rich market under correction mode, everything typically get pulled down.

To cut the story short, Tariff War has been going on dragging the market into uncertainty and this result the market pulling back largely. In my opinion, I don't really agree to the opinion that it will be self-inflicted damage on inflation else the other countries won't be retaliating. When import from a country gets expensive, consumer will look for cheaper alternative. And this will be reduced demand for goods from tariffed country. So the impact is definitely large on them. Unless there is specific goods or services that has monopoly which most are essentials by America such as Netflix, Google, MS Office, Windows etc. Ofcourse this are't physical stuffs that can be tariffed.  This left with item like food, automobiles, commodities and this are areas which I think is what Trump wants. To bring back manufacturing through balance trade.

For Q1 my performance like last year has seen early deep dive and then recovery. Whether it will be strong later is yet to be seen. While the US exposure is relatively small and investing in Treasury helps some in understanding the market situation better, the tariffs reduces the sentiment to reduce rate cut quickly. This can also be seen on the rising Gold prices as safe haven. Interestingly, we don't see much strength in USD.

There is also no renew AI story interest to push the market forward this time after Deepseek saga. It looks the market has finally encountered too much headwinds. The macro situation looks like high rate is here to stay for a while and we shall act accordingly to our plan. Meantime, Warchest is something to watch for me.

Cory Diary

2025-0329

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

 

Cory Diary : Applying Stock Trends to Expenses

In retirement phase, there is no active income. We can well manage our portoflio to grow our passive income. However, this aren't useful if expense is not kept in-check. Often we hear about trailing or leading 12 months performance of a stock. What-if we are apply this with our expenses.

From above Chart, we got an interesting trends early on what's our expenses be like on annual basis on monthly data collected. What is more shocking to me is when i try to get the average increase on this YOY trend. The answer is 12.4% ! The last 2 months on YoY expenses is coming down. Hope it stays there.

This Chart is more interesting. Even with expense curbed, it is still at high. Just slower climb. And this remind us the similar story we see in inflation data. The only way for inflation to come down is recession. Fortunately, for expenses we just have to cut. Austerity Measure ...

Cory Diary

2025-0323

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Cory Diary : Term Policies - Insurance Series

In my earlier article ( here ), I mentioned a return policy that refunded a sizable amount of money after more than 27 years. This cash has become handy now as I can deploy it as part of my overall passive income or for emergency needs. Additionally, the insurance element was minimal, and surrendering it has reduced my monthly payment outflow.

Portfolio Growth

Over the next 10 years, I aim to see growth in my equity portfolio, which primarily focuses on dividends. As I approached age 55, one of my key concerns that could derail this plan—aside from investment risks—is my health that requires substantial money. While I currently do not have any significant health issues I need insurance to manage this risk. Unforeseen events such as death could still impact my family's financial stability. However, this would not place a heavy burden on my net worth.

Term Insurance ( No Saving Element )

Since my children are still young and my partner is not yet well-versed in managing investments, my family may not be ready to handle the portfolio independently for the next few years. To address this, I plan to secure insurance that can help defray medical costs. Fortunately, I do not have any major health conditions that would prevent me from obtaining new policies. Recently, I secured two additional term policies: one focused on critical illness coverage until age 85 and another offering more comprehensive coverage for a limited period (customized to age 70). While term life insurance is not cheap at my age, buying early could have helped reduce costs. However, considering total expenses and priorities earlier in life—such as life insurance and housing—I believe it was a reasonable trade-off.

Next ...

Next, I need to list all my insurance policies and simplify their details so that my partner can manage them easily if something happens to me. Frankly, there are quite a few details about my older insurance policies that I only recently learned myself. Many of these policies are managed through CPF deductions, which are beneficial but somewhat unfamiliar to me. Especially those private Insurances that deduct using CPF funds.

Wish

My wish is for CPF to make the process even more seamless by enabling better insurance nominations and offering customized individual benefits details within CPF, and monitor/claims through CPF instead of doing on our own, with the private insurance. In the past, I lacked the time or inclination to address these matters; however, now that I am retired, I have started working on them. This task is already halfway done.

A Sharing of My Learning Journey... please dyodd.

Cory Diary

2025-0316

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

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Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.