Investing in CMT is one of a kind. It can hardly go wrong if you have taken a peek on it's portfolio of assets. The issue with it will be the actual return after stock price fluctuation. And so investing in CMT is more important in the entry price and the yield Maths will work itself out.
The quarter annualized DPU is 11.46 cents. Yield about 5.92%. This is despite Funan undergoing redevelopment. Management has stated moving forward to focus sustainability of the DPU. I guess that will be the benchmark.
Assuming Stock market tank, the maximum capital loss price will be around $1.82 after dividend will result in 6.1% yield assuming dividend able to maintain. Will you buy more or hold or sell ? This logic is important because stock price can continue to go lower to $1.7 as a test case. That will be about 23 cents loss or more than -11%. However Yield will go up to around 6.5%. If CMT fundamental is solid, do stock price matter for a dividend player mid to long term ? In fact for a million dollar asset invested, you will get 65K which some will be elated instead of just 58K currently.
What will the stock price and yield be after the funan site has re-developed complete ?
Cory
20170128
Notes:
"CMT’s current portfolio comprises 16 shopping malls which are strategically located in the suburban areas and downtown core of Singapore
- Tampines Mall, Junction 8, Funan (formerly known as Funan DigitaLife Mall), IMM Building (“IMM”), Plaza Singapura, Bugis Junction, Sembawang Shopping Centre, JCube, a 40.0% stake in Raffles City Singapore (“RCS”) held through RCS Trust, Lot One Shoppers’ Mall, 90 out of 91 strata lots in Bukit Panjang Plaza, The Atrium@Orchard, Clarke Quay, Bugis+, a 30.0% stake in Westgate held through Infinity Mall Trust (“IMT”) and Bedok Mall held through Brilliance Mall Trust (“BMT”)."
"CMT owns approximately 14.1% interest in CRCT, the first China shopping mall REIT listed on the SGX-ST in December 2006.'
The quarter annualized DPU is 11.46 cents. Yield about 5.92%. This is despite Funan undergoing redevelopment. Management has stated moving forward to focus sustainability of the DPU. I guess that will be the benchmark.
Assuming Stock market tank, the maximum capital loss price will be around $1.82 after dividend will result in 6.1% yield assuming dividend able to maintain. Will you buy more or hold or sell ? This logic is important because stock price can continue to go lower to $1.7 as a test case. That will be about 23 cents loss or more than -11%. However Yield will go up to around 6.5%. If CMT fundamental is solid, do stock price matter for a dividend player mid to long term ? In fact for a million dollar asset invested, you will get 65K which some will be elated instead of just 58K currently.
What will the stock price and yield be after the funan site has re-developed complete ?
Cory
20170128
Notes:
"CMT’s current portfolio comprises 16 shopping malls which are strategically located in the suburban areas and downtown core of Singapore
- Tampines Mall, Junction 8, Funan (formerly known as Funan DigitaLife Mall), IMM Building (“IMM”), Plaza Singapura, Bugis Junction, Sembawang Shopping Centre, JCube, a 40.0% stake in Raffles City Singapore (“RCS”) held through RCS Trust, Lot One Shoppers’ Mall, 90 out of 91 strata lots in Bukit Panjang Plaza, The Atrium@Orchard, Clarke Quay, Bugis+, a 30.0% stake in Westgate held through Infinity Mall Trust (“IMT”) and Bedok Mall held through Brilliance Mall Trust (“BMT”)."
"CMT owns approximately 14.1% interest in CRCT, the first China shopping mall REIT listed on the SGX-ST in December 2006.'
Have to hold till Funan is complete in 2018
ReplyDeleteAgreed so when we buy CMT we are buying their business and getting their dividends during the periods. The price will be any body guess. But we have a special card in 2018.
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ReplyDeleteI have been buying and selling Capitamall trust since its inception. When it was first listed, nobody wanted to get into this because they had not heard of REITs in Singapore. Property prices were on a downturn then. This is a typical case of buying when everybody is fearful. Now, there are a lot of speculations out there regarding interest rate movement and challenges from online retail, and some of them are really ridiculous. For us, this is an opportunity to accumulate more until the market decides to sing a different tune. As far as I can see, the fundamentals of this company are still intact.
ReplyDeleteTo me, the competition of the online means the mix of the mall will have to be different. For 3 years turn over of retailers and active management of loans/fixed, Interests rate will be mitigated. I don't see this an issue but I do recognize the sentiment aspect of investor. Yes, bottom line the fundamental of the company will be to watch.
DeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteRetail business is facing headwinds like online retailing and recession but the culture and leisure of shopping have been drilled into our minds, so it can still considered as a safe investment. As long ad the dividends is stable and consistent, we can still achieve wealth accumulation.Anyway with the Caiptaland as their parent company, there will always be solid support!
Hi Sir, it all boils down to integrity and sponsor of the management. I am sure your confidence is astute.
DeleteHi Cory, despite the online platforms, my own assessment is that suburban malls will survive as people (eg women) still prefer to see and touch approach. I like to visit the mall as it will give you a clear picture of the biz. I like CMT as they have a strong and capable management team with good track records. This is important as a proactive and strong management will look for strategies to grow the company. In addition, most of the malls have diversify to have more restaurants as tenants. Lastly, I also look at the significant shareholder list. eg Tamesek and Blackrock. The list will give you the confidence that you're investing into a good company.
ReplyDeleteMix of affordable and classy Restaurants will be nice. Smarter mgmt would have expanded them in suburb as they are clearly online resistance. Smaller family size and lesser cooking will also mean greater needs of them. It will be nice if they are able to identify another new segment to be more robust and yet online resistance other than the few telco, banks and medical.
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