Showing posts with label STI Index. Show all posts
Showing posts with label STI Index. Show all posts

Sep 21, 2020

Cory Diary : STI Index that I understand ...

STI Index is Straits Times Index

The Straits Times Index (STI) is a market capitalisation weighted index that tracks the performance of the top 30 companies listed on SGX. It is jointly calculated by Singapore Press Holdings (SPH), Singapore Exchange (SGX) and FTSE Group (FTSE).

What this mean is when you buy ETF shares of this Index, you have exposure to this 30 companies. Below table obtained from SG Investor link here.





The Index regularly updated with new companies which replaced some companies in the index. Recent times, the Index has not been doing well. One of the reason I feel is lack of Tech stocks that we see in NASDAQ while Covid-19 do it's work on traditional companies. Another reason is that the process of company selection is not as fast as I feel it should. For example strong Reits comes in after they have risen much for years before they get to replace companies that should have been replaced long ago. Restricting to only 30 companies may have some constraints. Finally the last spanner  is the dividend restriction on the 3 main banks in the index which dampen the market further on STI Index.

Theoretically, the ETF of the index will be kind of perpetual. So I find this quite passive in management as there is no expiry or right issue in my experience. The more diversification nature also protect investor from significant losses as is mitigated by poor performance of a few.  The STI ETF I often use is ES3. To trade, the stock quote is ES3. At current time,  in my personal view rather than long term hold, ETF is more good for Timing Trade on lows such as down trend or when is tuning up. STI ETF shares are traded like any other equity. Last Friday it closed at $2.527. So for 1000 shares will be $2,527. 

Lastly, this ETF do give dividends. Usually Feb and August periods. In comparison to Reits, the yield is lower however the risk is that one could hit with EHT or Sabana ... and have your portfolio blow up. One don't view the risk high till really got hit. Nothing is free in this world .... maybe except fatherly (bias) loves.


Cheers                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
Cory
2020-0920

Oct 26, 2019

Cory Diary : Performance Oct'19

Oei ! Too early lah. Still got a week leh. What's the hurry uncle ?

Next week uncle no feel good leh. Don't be so rigid can ? ( Uncle Cory cheated the time to report good result cannot meh....  )

Seriously why today ? ... All Time High ( ATH ) lah. Next week not sure can maintain or not. I don't want to miss the mountain ... so report first. Shiok right. Lucky Cory Portfolio is not listed else sure kenna ....

Why Cory worry  ? Let's look at STI first ....


STI Long Term Bull, Short Term Dunno !

Based on CoryLogics, STI approaching a resistance after bouncing off from multi-year support as expected else it will be major correction at minimum.  See link on last reasoning in Aug. i think which is basically a broad strategy this year on STI Performance in earlier articles as well. And well I am comfortable to have large stake in STI Index as a buffer for Reits profitability protection.

Finally cleared Facebook. Portfolio now all Singapore team. YTD Cory Xirr 19.1%. (updated for privacy). If we remove Bonds/Preference holdings, Portfolio would have been 23.1%. STI Index 3.81% (excluding dividend).



What's next ? Lack of ideas now. Thinking how should I further protect my profits but need to stay vested for rest of year and ensuring enough dividends for next year. So many asks. So little ideas.

On top of this I have different ideas coming up for next year.

1. Re-Balance some part of my portfolio to lower cost fees
2. Holding back purchases maybe to later part of next year
3. Key deliberation on Bank Stocks, Bonds and Preference Shares Strategy



Cory
2019-1025












Sep 14, 2019

Cory Diary : Cory Portfolio Re-balance - aftermath of MNACT sale

Cory Portfolio Re-balance

Mapletree NACT is one of Cory Striker and Dividend producer. One of Cory Core position in the portfolio. However the Black Swan event in Hong Kong provides some jittery to Cory fragile heart. After a black eye, decided to release it for better nights and securing profits. The pain is felt as not only Cory needs to look for growth compensation but also dividend support. At the same time to mitigate the risk.

To cover the gap, four new / add positions are made. Namely,

Sph Reit - Average Dividends Stability
iReit Global - Strong Yield with high level risk. Small position.
Vicom - Average Dividend Stability and Strong Defensive (expanded significantly)
Aims Apac Reit - Good Dividends with slightly higher risk

follow by sale of Sheng Siong. Long time lover who provided 5 years of good returns.

What an exercise ! Thank you Hong Kong ! I will be back when time is ripe.





Further investment is made to further expand existing STI ETF and DBS allocation for longer term investment on lows. This significantly protects the portfolio when dividend stocks slowed down and STI ignited recently.

Lastly, further expanded Ascendas Reit to the right proportion to other Reits lifting the theoretical dividends to $51k for Year 2020 positioning. Yes, is time to prepare. Have you ?


Cory

2019-0914



Aug 30, 2019

Cory Diary : Portfolio Resilience August Report

STI Index has major roller coaster rides this year. The most recent one is just this month when it erases all it this year winning and then creep back up a little to end at +1.23% YTD. After dividends, probably +4% range.

How did Cory Portfolio performs ? If we are to use the relative perform chart against STI, End Jun report is Here and Early Aug in Here. Iran conflict did not happen. I was trying to secure the widened gap. Let's look how it goes.
Year-to-Date

(updated for privacy) 

Cory Portfolio  : 15.8% which came down from 18.x% range 
excluding fixed instruments (ie bond)  : 19.2%.  This is mainly due to weakness in Banks, STI ETF and lastly Mapletree NAC Tr (Black-swan - HK Riots/RMB Depreciation).

(updated for privacy) 

Overall portfolio outperforms STI by 11.x% so far this year. There are some changes in portfolio mix which I will elaborate in later blogging.


Cory
2019-0830












Aug 16, 2019

Cory Diary : Dividend Report 2019 August


Cory Equity Dividend 2019 YTD (updated for privacy) . This push my total dividends collected.(updated for privacy) 


Within 5 years total Dividends collected has doubled. This is the strength of compounding while optimizing my asset. Hitting 2019 Annual Dividends (updated for privacy)  seems not so far a stretch now. Which is more than my normal annual saving from salary income. 

For those who are interested, STI Index currently is in one of their lows in my personal opinion. It can go lower but that's the chance we have to take in life, Calculated Risk.


Cory

2019-0816

Jun 19, 2019

Cory Diary : STI Rebounded 2019 June

STI has been quite volatile. This week it starts rebounding. If one has invested near end of last year, today one would still has nice returns of about 300 points ahead.





As we can see from long term resistance support, averaged down more on STI earlier and is now benefiting from the rebound. Recent low is a test of one resolve. The turmoil of the market doing their sum on our thinking. However, being portfolio buffered, this bring calmness for us to try.

Everyone waiting for FED now. Trump complained last time and likely more this time as he needs more ammunition to fight trade battle with China and EU especially we could see currency war entering the game. Will FED supports ?

Expecting the rate to hold. Chance is 60%. Cut 30%  However, if Powell tries to be funny and raise the interest rates instead, the market could well #$^$%&%^$*%4&*)&. Maybe he will try other options instead. However, should policy be reactive based on data coming in or anticipation in today world. Maybe we need to change with time.




Cory
2019-0619


















Mar 10, 2019

Cory Diary : Life is about Choices - STI Index


Life is about Choices

When I blogged earlier on 25th Dec'18 that we likely see better STI index, indeed we do. I would say fortunately we do because if it has broken supports, the alternative of the market direction would have been terrible. See the link here. So what I did then is to up my investible amount into the market that time in and indeed benefited from it.

Today I took a peak on the index again. Here's the chart.


STI Index

There is the golden cross up that most would like to see back in Dec'18 wishes.  How will the market move will be interesting after ?  In my novice opinion, it should continue to climb despite recent climb down of the index. There will be daily fluctuation noises. However, hopeful for the climb up for the year 2019 could likely mean the result of the China-US talk is not going to be bad.

The failure of the Vietnam talk which Trump walked away could helped reinforce to the Chinese that he aren't going to exchange votes for a bad deal for America. And that's mean more tough discussion has to be happened right from the top. The Chinese has the Choice imo. A less win deal is not a bad deal.

If they walkaway, this could mean breakdown to 3000 level. A further down side will be 2800 follow by ... .. ... Hopefully common sense prevails which I think they will. So continue to be vested. If I like to bet, it will be index or it's components that benefits from it.


Yes, there is always Risk. Be prepared for it !


Cory
2019-0310





Dec 30, 2018

Cory Diary : Sector Map Distribution 2018-1230

Just drawn up a map on my current equity investment portfolio. Do note SSB/Treasury, Pension and Fixed Deposits are not included.



Everything in percentage. There are mainly two areas which I will focus on here.


Dividend Play

About 50% in dividend focus equity (Trust/Reit). This will probably move to higher allocation in 2019. Net-link Trust will need to be watched closer as currently is a little over-allocated. Need to pay attention on how 5G plays out. One way is to increase my other dividend holdings. There are also good amount in Frasers and Maple families which are quite popular with investment community and I think is rightly so. Will it continues to do well in 2019 ?


Index and Bank

With rising rates, Banks will naturally benefits from it unless recession hits us. There are lots of noise in the market current whether 2019 is bull or bear. If I compute correctly, STI ETF yield is about 3.65% in 2018. What this mean is historically, STI price is relatively low using yield as benchmark. However we know that low can go lower just that the probability is smaller. Chart wise I think is unlikely to break support too. See link. Since STI Index is heavy on financials, higher exposure in the ETF is preferred. Unfortunately there is Telco element in it which I am not so sure. Therefore, I will still need to allocate some directly to bank counters.

I will be summarizing the final counters using radar and bubble after year 2018 truly ends.


Cory

2018-1230

Dec 25, 2018

Cory Diary : STI Index - Crucial Juncture

Most people who is well verse with STI Index would probably know that timing matters in STI Index investment. And going in lower will do us well in the future to come. So you may like to know that we are on the cross road for this period and the index is on one of it's low point of the wave fluctuation.

We have Tariffs, Brexit, Rate increase, US Shutdown, Syria pullout and SG Property Curbs and Poor Telco performance. There are so many negatives. Well, without them Index wouldn't be low, right ?



The above chart has a lot of approximations from a novice. So I won't be bothered to try to catch the ultimate bottom but appears 3000 range is strong. Question is do we dare to execute our buy ? I can't imagine if this range is broken. Maybe Trump is right ?



Cory
2018-1225


Dec 15, 2018

Cory Diary : Investment Updates 2018-1215

Trades




SSB Switch
Redeem SSB batch starting 1% rate for 2.01%. And a higher 2.45% effective rate.


First Reit

Reviewed First Reit investment for all the years and it still in good positive despite losses this year. If the sponsor sold off remainder of the 10%, the skin in the Reit doesn't appear to be good. Is not like they have a lot in the first place. Spending too much time on this drama for me to follow through so I thought it maybe better for me to move on. As it look like the rebound has stabilized, decided to switch out remainder of it. This will likely make my portfolio more robust for 2019. Ouch ! Nevertheless. House cleaning is never easy.


Frasers Cpt Tr

With sale of some more CMT Reit as it goes up, I use some of the excess  fund to collect FCT which I thought is valued cheaper. I am not sure the last quarterly reported result is normal though or is it beginning of the end. Sorry for the "horror headline" especially from one who just returned to vest on this. Reits generally are not cheap. It can get more expensive due to low rates though despite rate increase by FED.


STI Index
I did a sell trade again on the Index of the recent increment lots with the constant volatility originally meant for some exposure to the banks. Hope I can catch another smallish ride. I prefer to have larger stake in this.


VICOM
I am back on this. Not much discount though. Not easy to get. It will take a larger correction in the general market to put a dent i guess.


Cheers

Cory
2019-1214



Nov 28, 2018

Cory Diary : Preparation for 2019 Portfolio

We are near to end of year. While I am still hopeful for break even this year, there is good chance 2018 is negative to most investors on average. While everyone is still busy bandaging your wounds, I think we should at the same time prepare ourselves for 2019.



Portfolio is about managing risk


Managing Risk

1. Re-Balance : Reduced 25% in CMT in earlier blogging. This is due to good run-up to minimum expectation. I wish it could do more but I can settle with remaining 75% shares as they give good dividends even at this level.

2. Clean up : I have sold down largely AimsAmp Cap Reit yesterday. This is to take advantage of recent up swing at 1.37. I have this gut feeling it won't stay high for too long as is a resistance level. I have raised cash from this. The dividend gap to fill from this sale will be glaring if I do not do something this year.

3. Positioning for 2019 :

Shift some funds into enlarging Ascendas-hTrust at lower price. The yield is good. The gearing fine. The grow prospect is still worth a bet. This will fill some of my dividend plan.

Increased STI ETF as I think is at lower point. Averaging down Index ETF is much safer and is as keen as cost averaging and diversifying my risk rather than buying local banks shares directly which direction can be anybody guess.


Investigation Reviews

I looked at APTT a few times but sill do not feel comfortable. There will be technical rebound.
How large and how long is subjective. To myself, going in right now is pure gamble as I lack knowledge and feel for this counter. Short trade maybe nice but it won't be for 2019.

With recent low oil price, Keppel price still do not match the news. M1 purchase seems not a good deal. Property aren't helping. Chances are Keppel will have room to go much lower.

After losing OCC 5.1%, I have been actively looking for alternative. Temesek 2.7% doesn't cut it as is quite near to SSB level. Enlarging Fraser Bond 3.65% will put me over exposed to it. SSB has been max out. I won't want to put more into treasury for the yield is too low. Astrea IV trading premium is too high.


Looks like I still have few more punches to do but I am in no hurry.



thanks

Cory

2018-1128


Mar 13, 2018

Cory Diary : Recent Trade Actions 20180313



PARKWAYLIFE REIT and MAPLETREE IND TR

Manage to come back to secure some after recent price corrections. Just a relatively small position in each. Good to be able to expand my Reits to have two more counters. Current Reits allocation is around 40% of Local Equity Portfolio. Total Portfolio projected to receive target (updated for privacy) dividend in 2018 currently.

I like this Maple due to "Mapletree Investments and Mapletree Industrial Trust Form Joint Venture to Acquire 14 Data Centres in the United States of America". And I like Parkwaylife for being in the market for more affluent lifestyle and greying population needs.



CREATIVE

Did a quick speculative trade with just holding 1 day over the weekend when price moved up to 5.x. And sold it on the next mon working day at 8.x for whopping more than 60% gains. Just couldn't hold with such a gain so quickly. Since then, price corrected quickly and now is on restricted trade list. I would certainly like to buy a Creative 3D earphone to try out first.


STI Index

Bought a little more STI Index ES3 when it corrected recently after recent sale of some portion of my Singtel shares. I wouldn't want to go in big as we are at rather high level but I still feel 3800 is a good target.


QAF


Reduced my stake some with recent poor result as I am not sure how long it will takes to turn around the business. And use the fund to play with Creative which ends up very well as mentioned above.


There are few others trades but enough for today.


Cheers

Cory
20180313

May 21, 2017

Cory Diary : Time Dependent Performance - Part 2

I feel like very old man keep reminding myself about pitfalls in investment with data. Because many experts out there are giving questionable data and I need to make my own judgement including when I read my own blog in context. And I encourage people always do the same. Don't take word at face value.

Part 1 here's the link
http://corylogics.blogspot.tw/2017/05/cory-diary-time-dependent-performance.html

2nd Part is the continuation of STI performance being marketed. As said earlier, the common figure of 7% annualized (including div) is at this time frame.

If we are to use a time machine and zoom back to Oct'2007, someone will by harping STI giving more than 10% annualized returns ! Why ? Let me show you using STI returns on this period since 1987.


Yes is 11.5% annualized returns. So why suddenly in 2017 period people market long term is now 7% ? Because this long term return is movable !

Future STI market data will continuously move the needle of Annualized returns of STI. And is not small amount. As above is -40% returns. Future of STI annualized,  I would say that very heavily depends on Singapore Economy. We all have a stake in our country (or residence) future to make it bright and then STI will be Brighter.


Cory
20170521


May 20, 2017

Cory Diary : Time Dependent Performance


Often people ask for annualized returns over the entire investment horizon of index or fund. This is wrong simply each human investment lifespan is limited to their relevant period and changes as we age. How the world managed financially 100 years ago, 50 years ago, 30 years ago and today can be very different too. Depending when we are investing actively determines our performance during this periods.

For myself, the active investment period is about few years before the global financial crisis till ongoing now. That's 10-12 years mark. Therefore, it is meaningless to me when fund promote their result across 20 years or 30 years horizon where tons of things can happen in-between.. 10 years before it may be mega bull or era where they face different government regulatory, technological or whatsoever industry in focus. If i have started the same, my annualized can also be different from today.

Not strictly speaking, the weight-age even for same period can be different. A single salaried person will have more and more money later into her career for investment whereas a married person may have lesser. This is crucial to understand. Because a millionaire today do not have a million dollar 15 years ago to invest to compare. For DIY Investors, your recent fund invested are likely one of your largest or heavier amount in your investment life. Recent market change can skews your returns a lot more personally.

Fund that start right before GFC 2008 and after can be just a year apart but their result can also be totally different. So we need to be very careful when reading materials given to us. How many people will know or remember this ?

A sample of Cory returns each year as below. Annualized whole period about 6.8%.




A peek on Temasek performance, their 10 years and 20 years mark are 6% annualized.
http://www.temasek.com.sg/investorrelations/portfolioperformance

GIC returns are a little complicated as they are oversea focus. A strong SGD will not help or fair. Using USD, is about 5.7% @ 20 years. This beats nominal MSCI index.
http://www.gic.com.sg/report/report-2015-2016/investment-report.html

Now, how about STI Index, my favorite. Using 1st Jan 2007 (updated) to now. Is only 0.28% annualized (updated). If we are to include dividends say 3.x% to round it off, that's 4%(updated). Dividends play a huge part in returns or damping growth depending which side you are in. 10 years before (1997) is about 5% including dividends..

Seems so far our CPF can still get the money needed. If this funds go much lower, either CPF has to give lesser, Land sales price has to go up, more tax from us or SGD will have to weaken. You choose.


Cory
20170520




Apr 18, 2017

Cory Diary : Stock Market Volatility 1997 - 2016

The following information is plucked from various sources in the internet and summarized. I am doing that in view of recent North Korea crisis and Syria conflict in Trump era. I do not think we reach market crisis level yet. What I found is that 50% dropped is a major number observed when there are major crisis. The lesser ones are mere correction around 15% range.








Stock Market Crisis


The Asian financial crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of East Asia beginning in July 1997 and raised fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion. The crisis started in Thailand. Thai government was forced to float the baht due to lack of foreign currency to support its currency peg to the U.S. dollar. STI index severely impact dropping more than 50%.

The Dot-com Bubble was a historic economic bubble and period of excessive speculation that occurred from 1995 to 2001. The collapse of the bubble took place during 1999–2001. In exact, lasted about 2 years in period. STI dropped around 50% from 1999 Dec peak.

This followed quickly by SARS in early Mar 2003. STI hardly impacted even though there were huge fear initially. Can't even see a beep in the monthly chart.

The financial crisis of 2007–2008, also known as the Global Financial Crisis and the 2008 financial crisis. It began in 2007 with a crisis in the subprime mortgage market in the USA, and developed into a full-blown international banking crisis with the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008. STI crashed around 50% from peak in 2007.

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster initiated primarily by the tsunami following the Tōhoku earthquake on 11 March 2011. There were a small dip to STI Index when we look back on STI historical chart. People who have hold their equity has hardly any impact. People who average down has a windfall on average.

The 'August 2011 stock markets fall' was the sharp drop in stock prices in August 2011 in stock exchanges. This was due to fears of contagion of the European sovereign debt crisis, concerns over the slow economic growth of the United States and its credit rating being downgraded. For STI that's about 15% correction.

The Chinese stock market turbulence began with the popping of the stock market bubble on 12 June 2015 and ended in early February 2016. By 8–9 July 2015, the Shanghai stock market had fallen 30 percent over three weeks as 1,400 companies, or more than half listed, filed for a trading halt in an attempt to prevent further losses. STI not spared either as our economy are more integrated with growing China. STI dropped more than 20%. However is nowhere near the major crisis level we seen in percentage seen.

Brexit, World Markets tumble after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Investors lost more than the equivalent of 2 trillion United States dollars on 24 June 2016, making this day the worst single day drop in history, in absolute terms, according to data from S&P Global. The losses were extended to a combined total of the equivalent of 3 trillion dollars by additional selling on 27 June 2016 according to data from S&P Global. Hardly any practical dent to STI Index.


From above, appears major crisis are mainly has financial engineered implication that came to blow. They corrected roughly 50% whereas European Debt Crisis and Chinese Stock turbulence are more on political resolve and speculation. As for those other lesser crisis that are not result of financial,  there are no prolong impact to us locally. Thus, there aren't clear STI impact.



Cory
20170418










Apr 2, 2017

Cory Diary : STI the Year you are BORN

With STI Index run up recently. Many people maybe interested.

Below, One Picture speaks a Thousand Words with Dividends. Buy Low Sell High. :-)
























Cory
20170402

Cory Diary : Q1'17 Performance


Funding Injection

For the 3 months in 2017, I have injected roughly 30% more into my portfolio which would have been laying low in the banks. This reduced my XIRR YTD as there are no income from the 3 months due to enlarge base. The needed injection provide needed base earning and driving for potential future performance. This left my Cash/FD now comprises 31% of my Net Worth.

Funds are injected in

- Singapore Saving Bonds funds are mainly from idle cash/fixed deposit in saving banks. They will likely my future emergency fund location.

- Reits Oversea Exposure as I still feel Singapore dollars will stay weak for some periods. This has seen good rise in price just recently.

- Five Speculative trades just entered. Each quite a sizable ones. No result yet. Time will tell.

(updated for privacy)


XIRR (Compounded Returns)

Apparently last week of market push up my score a little. However this time I am more interested in other metrics. Over the years I have been injecting funds into SSB, PS and Bonds, naturally my XIRR will lowered. If FD has been included, score would have been worst since their returns are between 1-2% range. I need to understand the overall implication and how I can fully utilize while protecting my asset.

- Correction -
Cumulative XIRR from 2007 Jan to 2017 Mar : 6.7% (Cory Portfolio )
Cumulative XIRR from 2009 Jan to 2017 Mar : 8.4% (Cory Portfolio )

whereas STI Index ( 2007 Peak to 2017 Mar ) barely hits 0.6 %.


Since my portfolio has PS, Bond and SSB, is too much work to extract out trades on them. I decided to do a manual simulation just for the past year on short term performance.

- Correction -
XIRR from 2016 Jan to 2017 Mar  : 7.2% (Cory Portfolio )
XIRR from 2016 Jan to 2017 Mar  : 8.7% (Cory Portfolio excluding Fresh Fund in 2017, PS, Bond and SSB)
XIRR from 2016 Jan to 2017 Mar  : 12.3% (STI Index)

The first 3 months of STI Index records significant gains riding on Banks.

Cheers

Cory
20170402




Mar 27, 2017

Cory Diary: Is STI Performance truly understood ?

What is STI Index true performance ? The often quoted is 7% XIRR or so called Compounded which includes dividends distributed. This is achieved if one invest all their money one time exact in the year 2005 low and measured on the final price this month of STI. Yes is about 7%.

The issue is can this be repeated ? That is the catch.

Firstly our money in fund is constantly injected and for some withdraw during the 12 years period.

Secondly, how sure are we the next 12 years will be another 7%. Are we sure we can extrapolates ?

Finally, investment period is critical. Investing in 2005, 2011 and now will yield different STI performance. This can be shown by taking the dividends distributed and using different period of entry.


As you can see above, the Compounded or XIRR are total different on entry year. I am not saying STI ETF is not good. I have some too. But I want to remind myself that, if I started investing in STI in year 2008, you are only earning 0.56% after dividends. Is ALL ABOUT ENTRY TIMING.

So is it good to invest in STI ETF now ? You tell me :P


Cory
2017-03-27