Showing posts with label Portfolio. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Portfolio. Show all posts

Oct 6, 2023

Cory Diary : Review of Current Reits Position in the Portfolio

There are 10 Reits in the portfolio of varying allocation which together take up about 50% allocation today. The current Top 3 Reits allocation are Ascendas, Aims Apac Reit and FCT. The Bottom 3 Reits allocation are Sabana, United HS and Elite Comms.

Ascendas Reit - Hold to manage size allocation
Aims Apac Reit - Hold to manage size allocation
FCT - Accumulation stage when opportunity arises
Mapletree Industrial Trust - Hold to manage risk allocation
Mapletree Log Trust - Allocation Trend will be lowered due to acquisition
iReit - Hold to manage risk and size allocation
Ascott Trust  - Allocation Trend will be lowered due to acquisition
Elite Comms GBP - Hold due to GB local issue. Monitor.
UtdHampshReit USD - Hold to manage tax and risk
Sabana Reit - Hold to manage risk. Monitor.


Predominantly Foreign Asset Reits

Foreign based SG Reits are iReit, Elite Comms, UtdHampshire. All three therefore has forex exposure and in recent times suffers from reduced income in SGD. On top of this, inflation is relatively much higher than SG and Interest Rates Cost have seen much higher impact on them. Business wise the basic fundamentals look ok though not perfect. They could be a lot worst if they are in US Based Office Reits as WFH in oversea countries likely can be a long drawn normalcy.

While most of the higher allocated Reit positions are well into positive territory YTD, the higher yield Reits are in deep losses. The only consolidation is their relatively smaller allocation in the Reit segment of the portfolio after suffering large capital losses last year as well. This is not surprising due to most of this are mainly foreign assets whom faces much higher cost in recent time.


Industrial/Business Park/Logistic Reits

Ascendas, Aims Apac, MIT, MLT and Sabana are all Industrial/Logistic Reits of varying degrees. They enjoy relatively good business in current environment. Strong Rental reversion in a number of them. Interestingly, the smaller Reits like Aims Apac and Sabana did very well in rental reversion. All of them has a good plan and control of their debts. DPU looks stable.


Retail and Hospitality Reits

FCT and Ascott are in Malls and Hospitality respectively. They also enjoy strong business. With FCT being a Core Reit in the Portfolio other than Ascendas. The strength of FCT is their suburb Malls on well located area. A key necessity meeting and transit points for most commuters and well positioned for daily necessities. Is a Reit that we expect to be able to weather all Emotional Storms from the Market. Recently they have managed to sell off some non-key assets which is quite a positive move in current higher cost interests impact.

Ascott Reit is more a recovery play from Post Covid whom suffered deep impact from lock down and lack of tourism businesses during Covid period. Recent rights issue has been disappointing as we are in current higher rate environment and therefore large asset acquisition do not benefits shareholders. This is reflected in recent poor share price performance.


Overall

Worst time of Reits maybe over for major part of it however there are hangover issues with fundamentally weakened reits that will drive them lower as time passes. For the past 2 years the banks have counter balances the weakness of Reits in high spike rate environment. This help to ride the Portfolio over this volatile period.

Is also time now that I plan to do re-balance my portfolio with the longer term view of their trend. As usual, i will put integrity of the reit managers and their alignment to minority shareholders as utmost importance even though is with the expectation that the sponsor will try to take some off the table for themselves.

And finally whenever opportunity arises, i will tap into some warchest. There are voices out there that the market may turn worst. I will probably adjust my pace slower when tapping new funding. The good thing about all this is that SSB and T-Bills which has grown sizeable for the past 2 years, help to retard my funding release.


Cory
2023-1006

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny ( Limited to Invitation )

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.

Sep 2, 2023

Cory Diary : Portfolio of Mainly Reits and Banks YTD Performance '23



Reits in the Portfolio


Investing in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) can be a lucrative endeavor, but it comes with its unique challenges. In this article, we will explore the dynamics of REITs in investment portfolios and address common misconceptions.

Understanding REIT Vulnerability to Rate Hikes:

REITs, like any other investment, are influenced by market forces, including interest rate fluctuations. One key factor to consider is that rental contracts for REITs are often signed for years before renewal. Even if a REIT has rental escalations and triple-net leases built-in, rising loan rates can still affect their performance. It's worth noting that non-REIT companies can also face similar challenges due to loan costs.

Adapting to Changing Market Environments:

Some REITs face fundamental changes in their market environments. For instance, the rise of Work From Home (WFH) arrangements in the United States has impacted US Office REITs. In Singapore, there are a few US REITs with significant exposure to this trend. It's crucial to monitor such changes and be ready to adjust your portfolio accordingly. 

Performance of Different REIT Categories:

In the current environment, certain REIT categories have shown resilience. Local Retail Mall REITs and Industrial REITs have performed above average. Foreign Data Centers and Business Park exposure, such as Mapletree Industrial, have also weathered the storm. Year-to-date (YTD), many REITs are on the path to recovery from the rate spike costs incurred in 2022.

The Challenge of Foreign Exchange:

However, not all REITs have fared equally well. Take, for example, Elite Commercial REIT, which is UK-based. Despite strong tenant occupancy and double-digit positive rental reversion, foreign exchange fluctuations and loan costs have significantly impacted its distribution. When investing in REITs with significant overseas exposure, careful sizing and risk management are essential.

Dispelling the REIT Myth:

There's a common myth that US Office REIT crashes therefore all REIT are lousy investment using a few examples and paint a dark picture on the entire industry. This bias view is misleading, as many companies fluctuates on downtrend during rate hikes for the short term too. It's important not to oversimplify market dynamics. Evaluating a REIT's performance over a single year doesn't provide a complete picture.

Diversity in the Local Market:

The local market offers a wide range of REIT options. While Capitaland and Mapletree family REITs are popular choices, there are numerous others to consider. For example, Ascendas has delivered impressive returns over the past two decades, even at its current valuation. While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, it's essential to understand that rate spikes take time for REITs to digest and can present buying opportunities and attractive capital gain or yield on cost in the future.

Only few are badly hit due to US Office Exposure. A good example of typical reit that many local investors buy are Capitaland or Mapletree family. They form bulk of many local investor interests and form components in STI Index today.

A good example will be Ascendas as below. More than 300% returns excluding dividends over 20 years even at current fallen price. While we cannot be certain Ascendas will continue to perform in the future we should understand rate spike takes time for Reits to digest and could be a good opportunity for one to collect. In no way we are recommending any Reit stocks and one should dyodd.

More than 300% capital gain over 20 years excluding strong dividends


Banks in the Portfolio


Incorporating banks into the portfolio has been a strategic move. DBS and OCBC, for instance, have demonstrated resilience, benefiting from high interest rates. They are poised to continue performing well in the medium term. Allocating a portion of your portfolio to banks can serve as a hedge against other segments, while still providing attractive yields.

Challenges in Bank Diversification:

Unlike REITs, which offer a diverse range of options, the local banking sector has limited choices. This concentration risk should be careful when expanding more into this sector. Recent forays into other segments, such as Venture, have posed challenges, reinforcing the need for caution and thorough research. The plan will then be to only further expand into banking sector when opportunity arises. This could mean reserving more dividend cash in the meantime.


Portfolio Performance

Year-to-date, portfolio has achieved a 9.3% XIRR return, with Q3 '23 expected to show a slightly better improvement. REITs are gradually recovering, and their returns may expand as new contracts are negotiated. The only caveat remains foreign exchange volatility, which is beyond our control.

In conclusion, navigating REITs in your investment portfolio requires diligence and adaptability. Market dynamics are complex, and one must not oversimplify the factors influencing REIT performance. Diversification and careful sizing are key strategies, whether you choose to invest in REITs or explore the banking sector. Remember that past performance is not indicative of future results, and it's essential to stay informed and make well-informed investment decisions.

Currently, I am pretty comfortable with what I have in the portfolio. And the feeling today is we should have a better performance before the year ended.


Cory
2023-0902

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny ( Limited to Invitation )

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Not responsible of errors. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.


Jun 14, 2023

Cory Diary : Quick Snap on YTD Equity Returns 2023

The year 2023 has been an interesting time for my investments, with a focus on FD likes, SSB and T-Bills while neglecting CPF. In light of the challenges faced by dividend stock investors last year, I have been diligently monitoring my returns this year. Personally, I believe that diversification remains crucial for long-term success, as it allows for a stable portfolio that helps me maintain a calm and steady mindset, even if it means potentially sacrificing higher returns in the long run.


Investments in US Stocks

One area that has been particularly fruitful for me this year is the US stock market. However, I am still in the process of identifying my third stock there. I must admit that it might be a bit late to make a move, considering the significant run-up the market, particularly the Nasdaq, has already experienced.


Portfolio Returns YTD

Here are the Year-to-Date (YTD) returns of my portfolio as of December 31, 2023. Do note the YTD Return percentage is against the stock allocation and not portfolio level returns.



Impact of Inflation and Fed Decisions

Recently, the inflation report was released, indicating another significant dip in rates. This leads me to believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to pause, which, in turn, may drive the REIT market higher in the coming weeks. Additionally, if the economy can effectively mitigate any recessionary impacts, the banking sector is expected to benefit as well.


Conclusion

As I reflect on my investment strategy in 2023, it is evident that a cautious and diversified approach has served me well. While the US stock market has been a source of positive returns, I acknowledge the importance of thorough research and timing when entering such markets. With an eye on inflation and the decisions made by the Fed, I remain optimistic about the potential for further gains in the REIT and banking sectors.


Cory
2023-0614

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny ( Limited to Invitation )

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.


Jun 7, 2023

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates

Introduction

In the current high-interest-rate environment, various Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have begun raising funds. While the reasons behind these actions vary, one potential factor is the possibility of earning fees from these transactions for REITs. However, it's important to note that the exact motivations of the REITs and investors may differ, and a comprehensive understanding requires further analysis. Considering this situation, it may be worth exploring whether regulatory measures, such as requiring a significant shareholder consensus (similar to an en-bloc sale), could be implemented. Additionally, it is crucial to ensure that any deals undertaken by REITs are truly accretive.


Strategic Deals

One notable example is the recent deal executed by Mapletree Industrial Trust, which leveraged low-cost funding from Japan to acquire local properties. This approach appears to be a sensible strategy, allowing the REIT to make the most of favorable borrowing conditions while expanding its portfolio. Another REIT worth mentioning is Aims Apac Reit, which maintains transparency by openly communicating its intentions and strategies. It is worth noting that a significant portion of the funds raised by REITs is allocated for future Asset Enhancement Initiatives (AEIs), which is a valid allocation given the chairman's personal investment in the REIT when the share price dropped. These recent market conditions have displayed considerable volatility. As for iReit, the right issue seems straight forward accretive deal based on proforma detail. This will help reduces concentration in Germany.


Evaluating Accretive Deals and Dilution Concerns

Interestingly, some REITs provide explanations for the dilution of their distribution per unit (DPU) resulting from share dilution. This raises questions about the necessity of such explanations, as accretive deals should ideally enhance overall value for unitholders. 


Portfolio Adjustments

In terms of my own portfolio adjustments, I have initiated the process of increasing back Ascendas, Sheng Siong, Mapletree Industrial Trust, and Aims Apac, alongside diversified investments such as Microsoft (MSFT), and Banks. Conversely, I have decided to release my holdings in CDG back to the market.




As always, readers are advised to seek professional assistance and take responsibility for their financial decisions.


Cory
2023-0607

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny ( Limited to Invitation )

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Chat

Disclaimer: The articles presented in this blog reflect personal opinions and are intended for informational and sharing purposes only. Readers are advised to seek professional guidance when making financial decisions and should take full responsibility for their choices.


May 2, 2023

Cory Diary : Equity Portfolio - Rate Spike Readiness

As I review my portfolio recently, there are quite a few changes that I would like to share. First, I presented a customized radar chart to help me visualize the performance of each stock. However, if you find it hard to understand, you can skip it and go straight into the highlights of each stock that I am interested in. 



As an investor, I recently made some changes to my portfolio that I'd like to discuss. Firstly, I decided to sell all my shares in Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr. Although I had a net positive return after 5 years of investing, I wasn't happy with the company's recent merger and management's actions. Additionally, the mall asset in Hong Kong is performing poorly, which doesn't bode well for the company. Given the current macroeconomic situation in Hong Kong, I felt it was time to move on and raise some cash.

On the other hand, I've decided to build a new position in Mapletree Log Tr. Although the macroeconomic headwinds make me unsure about investing in logistics, this company has a strong track record and is likely to do better than its peers. The investible REITs market in Singapore is also quite limited, especially with the recent high-interest-rate environment. As a result, I'm prioritizing debt management for any new investments I make.

Mapletree Log Tr's total debt as of March 31, 2023, is S$4,877 million, which is slightly lower than the previous year. Although the weighted average annualized interest rate has increased slightly from 2.2% to 2.7% over the past year, the company's interest cover ratio of 4.0 times is still relatively healthy, indicating it has sufficient operating income to cover its interest expense. However, the adjusted interest cover ratio has decreased from 4.2 times in the previous year to 3.5 times in 2023. Overall, the company's debt level and leverage ratio seem manageable.

The company has taken steps to manage interest rate risk, with 84% of its total debt hedged or drawn in fixed rates. Every potential 25 bps increase in base rates1 may result in ~S$0.49m decrease in distributable income or -0.01 cents in DPU per quarter. Additionally, about 77% of the amount distributable in the next 12 months is hedged into or derived in SGD, mitigating forex risk.

Moving on to my stock holdings, I've added to my stake in Microsoft incrementally. While I used to think that we couldn't do without Google search, I've recently been impressed with ChatGPT and have reduced my usage of Google search. The recent acquisition of Blizzard further boosted the stock price, although it remains to be seen if this will help Microsoft. Nonetheless, I've learned that it pays to wait when investing in growth stocks, given their volatility.

I've also secured a position in OCBC to balance my portfolio's REITs exposure, as my portfolio currently has DBS as its top position. While UOB is also an option, I found  OCBC's yield more attractive. All three banks are currently in a strong position, but we have to be mindful that their P/B ratios aren't cheap. Thus, I don't plan to add a significant stake immediately to rival the top 5 positions of my portfolio. As I focus annually on building up my dividend size, I'll be diligent in my investment choices. Currently, OCBC's management is flexible on future dividends, which means that the recent dividend may be volatile depending on the business.

Next, Sabana Reit has been performing well under the current management, delivering good returns. However, given its small size, it may be prone to volatility. The latest report shows that the Reit's returns may be negatively affected by a spike in interest rates. Therefore, a significant portion of the portfolio position was sold. If the high rates persist and the impact is not fully reflected, the next report could be negative too. As a result, the decision was made to take profits when good opportunities arose. 

Capitaland Ascott Trust


Finally, I've initiated a position in Capitaland Ascott Trust, which appears to be a well-managed REIT with a diversified portfolio of properties across multiple geographies and solid capital management position. As with my other investments, I'm prioritizing debt management in this position as well.

I've also made some adjustments to my stock holdings by trimming the top positions of Ascendas and FCT to achieve adequate diversification at the current portfolio size.

Please note that this is not financial advice, and I encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decisions.



Cory
2023-0501

Mar 25, 2023

Cory Diary : Navigating Risks in a Volatile Market - Equity Portfolio

Banking Crisis

After a brief hiatus from my blog, I'm back to writing about my equity portfolio and recent market events. With the collapse of several banks, regulators are enforcing quick resolutions to avoid contingencies. The Federal Reserve has been clear about the risks involved, yet some banks like SVB continue to take risks, leading to poor risk management and the risk of losing Other People's Money (OPM) for the sake of performance.




The Middle Class

In the past, high-risk investments like those seen in Lehman Brothers in 2008 were a major concern. But today, even low-risk treasury investments can lead to failure if investors become complacent. The recent US rate path to fight inflation shows why the Fed is determined to bring down inflation rates, as basic necessities are becoming increasingly unaffordable for the poor. The middle class is also at risk, as a 9% annual inflation rate could result in a loss of $90k in purchasing power for someone with a net worth of $1 million, which could vaporize a lifetime of savings.

The next inflation report theoretically we could see another reduction. See above Inflation rate chart and we can understand why. The previous year on month has a spike. Again is all about meeting expectation.


Equity Portfolio

To balance my largely REIT-focused portfolio, I've had to increase my bank stake despite the rising rates and high PB ratios. I chose DBS Bank as a long-term performer in the STI Index, with sustainable and conservative returns. On the other hand, my experience with Prime REIT has been disappointing, with poor returns despite management's trying to paint a different picture. After learning my lesson with small-sized positions, I decided to clear off my tiny position in the REIT.




I've also been doing some trading with Mapletree Logistics REIT and have now completed my Mapletree collection with a slightly larger stake. While HK's future looks uncertain and US DCs and rates aren't favorable, I still have sizable positions in Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust and Mapletree Industrial Trust, as they are better off than many others.

Overall, with the recent banking crisis and inflation risks, it's important to stay vigilant and invest wisely in a balanced portfolio to avoid losing hard-earned savings.


Cory
2023-03-25

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny ( Limited to Invitation )

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram Channel

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.






 

Jul 18, 2022

Cory Diary : Investment Portfolio Allocation - Fighting Inflation

In this Portfolio Report, the focus is on the ability to generate more recurring income from dividends and interests when the market is at cheap. There is a fight in current saving to remain in Cash or CPF, Multipliers, SSB and Equity to grow the returns. Is like all cylinders firing at different fire power with varying safety levels.


Portfolio

From below chart, the "Bond" components constitutes about 28.6 % providing 2.5% to 4% interest returns. Growth stock which has little or no dividend, about 7.7%. Likely the limit I would inject for my age. So whether it can grow will be left to the business and the market. That's leave about 2/3 of the allocation to generate higher risk dividend income through Equity. Higher risk do not mean High risk especially when we are comparing to likes of SSB, CPF and Multiplier.

Note :  Net Investment Property and Saving Insurance excluded.




CPF

Personally two more max top before hitting 55 where SA allocation is max percentage wise. CPF is attractive for people near age 55 as we can withdraw OA and SA after FRS deducted. Currently there are no change in CPF Interests while everything else getting cheaper. So there are no rush to top-up till end of next year instead of Jan'23. This is assuming we can getting much better returns from the market.


SSB

Re-Investing SSB to higher rate bond is generally preferred over company bond basically because it is Capital Intact and with increasing rate. We can also re-channeled to Stock Market if there are big market crash. Exception applies. With increasing rate possibility, New Perpetual Share or Bond could suffers pricing loss and this is assuming the company fundamental do not affects the redeem later on. Only SSB allows investor to redeem as need with 1 month lead time without capital loss.


Multiplier

DBS Multiplier likely the first to use for War Chest after saving cash has been used up. Is also a good place to park cash that rivals SSB and CPF (after 55 excess of FRS). Better than SSB, it has no lead time and suffers no capital loss. The current Max of 100k is 2.5% on average.

Like CPF and SSB, Multiplier is part of the layers that provide emotional support as a safety nets when times are bad for people working towards higher risk products in financial goals.


Cash Injection Pace

At high inflation rate environment holding cash, the cost is high even though Cash is King right now. Continue buying Bit Size into investment products such as Reits and Bank as they stay low with time. We are buying cheaper in Inflationary environment. What a steal !

The hope is still waiting for better opportunity of a market crash on value segment so that we can inject much larger. This is not to say there will be crash but a reserve to have such. Keeping in mind reserves also needed for possible rights issue at huge discount.



Cory
2022-0718

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Jul 5, 2022

Cory Diary : Building Up Passive Returns - Income Streams

Equity Portfolio ( link )

The market has been on bad patches in recent months or years depending on the make-up of one portfolio. Not sure about investors but personally this can be one of the best time to re-balance, strengthen and build up a dividend portfolio.


One of the weakness in the portfolio is the persistent under representation of Finance stocks. Therefore, has been buying into DBS stock which provide good dividends. Size wise still not there yet due to concern with digital banking competition. Nevertheless, need to have enough investment into this area.

What best is to be able to buy with current yield reaching 4.9%. Price can get lower and recession might comes knocking. USA side there is speculation that we are in recession already. Currently preference is to go in slowly.

Competing against budget for Bank is the need to also buy Reits on the cheap which produces good yield. Need to constant inject in this area too.


Singapore Saving Bond, Multipliers, Pension and Private Bond

Have not been utilizing fully the CPF scheme. Only did top up in recent years with the elimination of company bonds. This money tied down long term so we can't touch it till later or 65 mainly for FRS amount.

With Rising Rate, the interest rates of CPF is falling behind. Decided to try some Astrea bond which is becoming more attractive as the price falls. There is capital risk so starting small. Nothing is permanent I guess.

SSB is also getting more interesting. Multipliers can be switched out any time. The idea is that as the equity portfolio grows bigger, the reserve in SSB and Multiplier can be managed down. Rich get richer rings here ?


Property Investment

Unlike Reit, property investment requires large sum of money even with leverage. The potential rental income is quite attractive. However one has to make sure the rental income keeps coming in which can be easily 50% of equity dividends received. For long term diversification, property is nice to have. Have to watch the loan payment consistently and making sure there is cash reserve in SSB for sufficient run way if one get retrenched and out of market permanently.


In Summary

Returns excluding salary works out to cover a big portion of Life Style Creep expenses. There is still a gap to close. Need to look around on making remaining cash works harder while smothering down the expenses (cost). 


Cory

2022-0705

CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.




Dec 3, 2021

Cory Diary : Portfolio Equity Map After Omicron

Past few days have been quite humbling. The correction seen on the Market and specially Banks are quite significant. When we look back at my previous post ( link )on 24th Nov about Capital Preservation, I just feel the market has something up it's sleeves. Indeed it has with Omicron. Well the good news is that it is mild so far. And if stays so and prevalent, it could be the end of Covid Era. A natural immunization across the world population against Covid. Will this materialize is yet to be seen but probably considering Spanish flu kind of disappear after 2 years too in a world that do not have vaccine.

So with the move on preservation, I do "Saved" my US portfolio. However not significant is done on Asia Equity. For Chinese shares, fortunately I have decided to remove HST, and Tencent reduced as the more I think about Gov persistent "fixing" of private company is bad for capitalism ideas therefore bad for HK Stock Market. Self-serving shooting on own foot borders insanity just like Cultural Revolution which is a misnomer because Cultural do get destroyed. Will this implied Economic Revolution kills the Economy too ? Time will tell. I wish my Chinese friends good luck as I still have Alibaba invested with them. Still holding the last flame of hope in them.



Above Current Portfolio allocation. 18 stocks. Walked through each of SG stocks allocation today again and there is nothing I am not happy about except the market price. haha. Each size allocation balanced against my fear. So there seem nothing I need to tweak. Glad to build back some shares in DBS during the sell down before it went back up due to Fed. Rising rate is good for bank so it is kind of counter balance when the market goes berserk. Maybe we need MSCI to thank for driving the bank price low by their rebalancing to SEA. Kind of damaging moves to their client imo.

Now with balance 8.6% investment fund, I could deploy in either in US or SG markets. I have come back just a little bit in META and AMD earlier. Now, with Fed hawkish, and Omicron fear fading, it looks like tapering will happen in a faster pace follow by rate rise. This is bad for growth stock specially money losing ones. And this probably explain why SEA, PLTR and GRAB won't do well. Dividend stocks wise I have enough for Year 2022. I could get more but I want to have some bang in the buck and probably TESLA and AMD if I could get good pricing.

Current profit yield at 9.8% YTD which is performing slightly above STI. Dividend planned for Year 2022 is roughly 64k. Let's see how much Bonus I will get ....


Cory
2021-0213


CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny
Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and sharing purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.



Oct 9, 2021

Cory Diary : Portfolio Equity Allocation

Portfolio Update




Chinese Stocks

The ride on Chinese stocks have not been going well. It could have been worst considering the downtrend is as deep as Year 2008 global financial crisis except that this is man-made. Frankly, for such a deep correction, the cost to economic is highly subjective bother concern. Even with past few days of rebound, the downtrend is still intact from what I estimate from the chart. Some of the change is anti-capitalism in nature. This may mean innovation will be much harder locally.


US Stocks

In contrast to Chinese stocks, the US market is on strong recovery mode. Printing continues to work. There is no runaway inflation so far. Whatever loosening of the dollar means the value get lesser which implied the stock price should go higher as the fundamental of the business remains unchanged if not better since those with strong moat will adjust their product and services upwards.


Singapore Stocks

In my view higher inflation even though may result in higher interests rate being driven, the benefits resulting of it is increase in rental due to rising business cost. This is good for reits as many of good quality reits yield are in sub 5% range and therefore quite compressed currently. There is little room for capital gains consider the baseline rate such as CPF 4% and SSB 1.5% could be use as reference of near zero risk.

 



In this Pie chart view, Banking continues to be under represented. It will be good to have slightly higher allocation so that relatively performance wise will not be too far off from STI Index. Reits 40% allocation is in sweet spot. Growth stocks at 9.8% looks ok for now. Mid Term would target 15% to achieve a balance on growth and dividend yields. Frasers Corporate bond will be maturing next year. Will be excited to have them deploy elsewhere to support growth and dividend as needed.

Investment fund is down to 1.7%. Planning to inject new funds to boost the portfolio later as a number of stocks are in quite attractive valuation. Profit yield YTD is 6.9%. There is good chance the portfolio will improve on current returns.




Cory
2021-1009


CoryLogics Invest Chat - No Coin, No Porn, No Penny
Telegram CoryLogics <= Link to Telegram

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Aug 15, 2021

Cory Diary : Comparison List of Stocks

Have we ever wonder if we have a group of interested stock list. How do they perform against each other for a specific period in time ?

Stock List

  • 9988 - Alibaba HK
  • ACDSF - Ascendas Reit ( Paid 3.02% dividend )
  • AMD
  • DBS ( Paid 2.23% dividend )
  • HST - Hang Seng Tech ETF
  • ME8U - Mapletree Ind Reit ( Paid 3.4% dividend )
  • MSFT - Microsoft ( Paid 0.3% dividend )
  • TSLA - Tesla


They can be found in Cory Portfolio. In summary, SG Reit stocks do ok if we include the dividend already distributed. Champion is slow and steady Microsoft interestingly followed by DBS powering this year STI. At the bottom are Alibaba and HS Tech ETF due to Chinese Regulatory crackdown. From the pace that is going on, doesn't looks like abating.


Cory
2021-0815

Telegram CoryLogics Invest Chat
No Coin, No Porn, No Penny

Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.


Jul 12, 2021

Cory Diary : Charlie Munger on Diversification

Get 3 best in town, is enough for diversification. He talked a lot of things. Only that rough idea gets into me. I decide to adapt his advise to choose the best few stocks oversea. Currently below what I have. Since US slots are full, I should have at least one more in the other "Town".

1. AMD
2. Microsoft
3. Tesla
4. Alibaba (HK)

There are few choices I know without need for in-depth study. While timing can be better, they are quite beaten currently.

1. TENCENT (HK)
2. Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH

Enjoy !




Cory
2021-0712
Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.





Apr 9, 2021

Cory Diary : Portfolio Fund Tracker 2021Q1

New chart series for totaled Equity plus investment cash to form the investment portfolio. Since Mar 2020 crash, the market has recovered above the peak level of Pre-Covid. Again time in market is so important. It was early Jan 2019 that the fund crossed 1M mark and now we are already marching towards $1.4M.




Unrealised and Realised P/L since 2017: $355,491
Div since 2017 : $256,415

2021 P/L YTD : $52,784
2021 Div YTD : $9,561

Started testing out in HK market after US Market experiences. So now have exposure in 3 Markets. Next destination will be LSE.


Cory
2021-0409
Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Mar 6, 2021

Cory Diary : Portfolio Updates

Recent adventure in US market is not good as tech starts to correct. Even though I was prepared that this could happen with mitigation strategy, the cost is still quite painful and feel timing ( fate ) could be better. With US treasury yield continues to rise, both bond and equity broadly are coming down the same time while mainly banks stocks move up. Stock and bond prices usually move in opposite directions. What will Fed do this time ? Nothing so far unless it spreads to destabilize the value market I feel. Tech stocks are in bubble territory so any correction to them is very welcome to Fed probably. 

My portfolio is now segmented into Bonds, SG Core, SG Reits and US Stocks. At this moment is lagging behind recovering STI index by a few percentage points as market moves to value while within Quality Reits get hammered. On dividend plan, the portfolio target annual dividend max of 55k is completed. ( Slightly higher than year 2020 in sustainable basis). I also build up a warchest of about 9% of invested portfolio value for quick deployment if needed. 

So with above in context, what's my take now ?


Bonds ( Orange )

With the recent maturity of CMT 3.08% bond, I am now left with 3 bonds. As previously mentioned, my plan is to have CPF be the "bond holding" of my portfolio and therefore this bond segment will be phased out and not be tracked in portfolio as CPF size will be expected to be large enough to skew the tracking of risk, yield or returns. However if I am to invest my CPF cash later, then they may return into the portfolio to be tracked. This transition phase could release more cash as I am limited on how much I could top-up my cash into CPF annually.


Reits ( Green )

Expanded to 9 Reits. Almost added Frasers Logistic and MLT but decided not as is still too expensive despite recent correction on quality reits. This is based mainly on yield/risk. I have a theory that the recent Reits volatility is due to flight of funds from strong reits who are competing with increasing bond yield. So at appropriate time maybe good time to scope this class of reits.

Elite, Cromwell and Aims Apac are considered higher risk in this Reit segment so their allocations are lower with higher yield. IReit however is allocated higher because I have AK backing. hahaha. This class of higher risk reits can do wonders to your dpu but occasionally "bad news" will strike them. Is important that we diversify to more of them and to filtered out similar or even riskier ones. So far exclusion list ESR, Sasseur Reit, First Reit, LMIR, Hospitality. Do note this article is not a thumb down on them but their uncomplement to my invested list. haha




Core ( Blue )

Sold OCBC recently to lock in profit as I feel there is enough DBS allocation to ride through the market. This also mean is much harder for me to sell DBS now considering it has been a strong balancer of losses in other segments this time round. I like SGX and Netlink a lot but there is limit of allocation which I do not want to over-expose to. One interesting stock is Sheng Siong which I am buying back at higher cost but at much smaller amount.


Recent adventure in US stocks ( Pink )

If we could remember I laid out a plan to invest in US stocks at a time when the market is quite high and was careful to make sure this is mitigated. I planned a 5 steps allocation approach to increase my allocated investment. The first step was implemented, and together with previous US shares not tracked earlier, constituted about 4.5% of my investment portfolio now. 

And then the US market starts to tank, and the whole process stopped at step 1 which is less than 5% of investment portfolio. If the 5 steps are done, I would have reached 25% allocated investment. Bad timing ..... on my diversification plan but it could be worst. I would hold them and see how far the correction goes. Being used to dividend investing, such volatile movement is something i need to learn. Some school fees need to be paid. Is a very good learning experience with skin in the game.

Chances are I will invest more into US market in the future. PLTR, Nvida, Appian, Amazon, FB are interesting list in-addition to existing.


Cheers

Cory
2021-0306
Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Jan 16, 2021

Cory Diary: Year 2021 Portfolio Strategy

Building Up of CPF and The End of Bonds Age


With the portfolio growing, emergency funds filled and cash increased, and finally the focus of CPF returns supporting retirements, is time to slowly phase out Bonds managed in the portfolio. As CPF is not tracked in active portfolio, we will be expecting higher yield moving forward with higher volatility.

So why the focus on CPF.  Stability of the returns, and roughly 4% XIRR. This beats many bonds.
Furthermore, with locked mechanism or restrictions in CPF, I view it as positive. In-addition to that, it can also be a good holding place for extra cash in OA to be withdrawn as needed after 55. Yes, rule will change but usually is for the better or rational reason. Nevertheless, is prudent not to solely depend everything on it.

This will formed a solid base and a release of 1/4 M to more active investing. The plan is to do more cash top-up via VC3AC for the next few years as I hit FRS.


Investment Accounts

Fixed Deposit is so yesterday especially in foreign currency as there aren't much good ones after AUD/NZ dramatic reductions over the years. For local currency, the only place will be temporary holding. So basically cash is best placed in investment holding accounts subject to safety of assets consideration. I hold the view that we should not be fully invested unless we are really good in stock picking. I am not there yet.

Most of equities invested are cash flow generating for dividend.


US Investment

Have some shares in US which has seen almost doubled in returns over the years. I think is time to slowly sell them off with the rising market. However I need to get my W8BEN renewed. They aren't tracked in investment portfolio. Compared to more famous stocks like Nvidia or Tesla, this returns frankly is mediocre LOL. What a time !

If there is a large correction in the US market, I may consider some investments over there.


Chicken Genius

I watched the Video from this local man in utube who make millions from Tesla. Strike the cord that we have to invest into Needs of the World. I think this makes perfect sense. The result could be long term. Of-course is in context.

For example I would think Nvidia provide high end solution to Bitcoin farming machines, high end graphics and Gaming. Covid helps to push it up another few  levels. There's a need for it. There  aren't strong competitor. 

Growth Allocation will be opportunity based.



Cory
2020-0116
Articles in this Blog is personal take and educational purposes only. Reader should seek their own professional help when making financial decision and be responsible for their decision.

Jul 26, 2020

Cory Diary : Increasing my active investment for Passive Dividends

The Goal

The Covid-19 throws a spanner on increasing Portfolio to $1.3M quickly from 1.2M as in we need to be careful in our investment injection by $100k which is part of Warchest. So why this amount ?
.
Here's the link because of the compounding effect @1.3M per my lifestyle. (contingent to yield 5.3% able to maintain @ 1% growth). However if the stock price keeps increasing but business fundamental weaken or not enough improvement, the yield will be lowered. To compensate it, higher cash inject will be needed or expenses reset as we age. Hope I don't lose you by now !

Let me explain again using Reit term. if the stock price increase by 1% (Growth), and we have corresponding reduction in yield say -1% (DPU in cents maintain), it kind of neutralize the compounding effect. This is not good as we lose that year of compounding. So DPU has to increase accordingly to maintain the yield. If is not which could be, and to bring the portfolio backup,  we need to increase our investment through injection or we spend less to support the injection. Get it ?

Of-course we can increase our yield by investing in riskier asset to maintain it but this is not sustainable long term and will mean Portfolio keeps getting RISKIER over time .... . And that is Dangerous which some people may make, like me on what I feel right now  ? LOL

Therefore, come to think of it, is not so easy as the calculation is a simplified model. To mitigate it therefore using above example, if 1% growth of 1.3M that is equal to $13k has to come out of Real growth. When there is no DPU growth, we need to inject in this amount of $13k or spend less to support it roughly.

This is why advocating dividend re-investing is important or injection from saving if you have a job as changing stock aren't easy for same quality. But the key is capital gain has it's price to fulfill for dividend investing.


Something new today.


Cheers

Cory
2020-0726









.


 


Jan 15, 2020

Cory Diary : Resetting Performance Tracker 2020

The year 2020 starts with robust gain though not like the burst we see in start of 2019. Cory portfolio is also not well position to benefit significantly from it. Nevertheless relatively to STI, Cory Portfolio still edge a little bit higher.



The purpose of this post today is not about the gains but the reset feature of recognizing past realised and unreleased gains in 2019 as one's Year 2020 asset. This is done by resetting the Cory portfolio tracker to zero as above along with STI.

This is important concept in Cory Portfolio Strategy management that is not to subject oneself to have a mindset of plenty and that what profited in prior years are not dispensable money.



Cory
2020-0115

Dec 31, 2019

Cory Diary : Year 2019 Reit Year

We have come to an end in the last day of SGX Trading for Year 2019. For Income Investor this has been nothing but solid. S&P 500 has record year too. But it will be closer to home if we just look at Singapore Reits.

Cory Portfolio has large amount of Reits. And here's Performance tracked throughout 2019. There is some work but also a lot of investing fun provided is in profit ...



Cory Portfolio Table 

Year 2019 Realized and Unrealized Profit hits new record. Reits take up 70% of the profit. Just Reit alone the XIRR is 31.7% This is a Reit year. For year 2020 preparation there is some diversification shifts on segments as blogged earlier. Chances are yield compression is harder. For financial planning reason, there will be steps on going more into indexes to hold long term. Hopefully will have the opportunity to do so to allow the portfolio go through next stage of growth.


FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (INDEX: FSTAS8670) returns 18.8% for the year.  LION-PHILLIP S-REIT (SGX: CLR) an ETF has 23.3% including dividend. So anyone who are vested in Singapore Reits will hit this range of score generally unless your pick is bias to extreme. Once again time in market has proven to be really true for Year 2019. If one has sit out, this year will be sorely missed.

Happy New Year !

Cory
2019-1231

Dec 24, 2019

Cory Diary : Portfolio Changes 2019

From start of year till now, Portfolio has undergo significant changes with my thinking and progress. Expense Ratio is now at 0.85% which almost $10 K. I think did about 150 to 200 trades. One of my practice is to break down my purchases and sales so that ramp up the numbers. Thankfully my broker has agreed to give me a better rate.

Year 2019 has been joyful because of lowering yield pushing up Reits. I would think the curbs on property helps too as there is too much cash in the system looking for safe returns. Whether it will fallback is anyone guess but for dividend players this could be good news ironically.



This is the first time i present my portfolio in excel in this format. Something which I have been using for long time. Portfolio table reflects what I have and what have left the portfolio. The returns are mainly computed using XIRR or situation where I could safely use formula of returns/invested ratio to give more absolute feeling on returns. Take note the yield and price is just an estimation and delayed.

Yes, it has been a good year for Income Investor even for Cory with Fixed holdings within the portfolio. This year XIRR 20% for a 47% Reit portfolio. Take note that Profits will be lower due to past year losses. And returns included Dividends/Rights. Moving forward my posts will be less revealing as wife wants more privacy. Happy Wife Happy Life. I fully agree ! 😃


Cory
2019-1224

Dec 6, 2019

Cory Diary : Sector View of Cory Portfolio


Sector tracker comparison for 2 month periods


Cory Top 7 Investments

1. Ascendas Reit
2. DBS
3. STI ETF
4. Frasers Bond
5. CapitaLand Mall Trust ( CMT )
6. VICOM
7. SPH Reit

Previous Investment as link.

Note: Netlink BNB Tr is classified under Telco

Main Key Change is the expansion move in Banking Segment which are relatively more attractive to position for Year 2020. This provide a more balance portfolio that is strong enough to match Reits exposure which has enjoyed significant run up this year. Chances are we are't going to see same scale in jump for Year 2020.


Cory
2019-1206