Jan 28, 2017

Cory Diary : CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 4Q16

Investing in CMT is one of a kind. It can hardly go wrong  if you have taken a peek on it's portfolio of assets. The issue with it will be the actual return after stock price fluctuation. And so investing in CMT is more important in the entry price and the yield Maths will work itself out.

The quarter annualized DPU is 11.46 cents. Yield about 5.92%. This is despite Funan undergoing redevelopment. Management has stated moving forward to focus sustainability of the DPU. I guess that will be the benchmark.

Assuming Stock market tank, the maximum capital loss price will be around $1.82 after dividend will result in 6.1% yield assuming dividend able to maintain. Will you buy more or hold or sell ? This logic is important because stock price can continue to go lower to $1.7 as a test case. That will be about 23 cents loss or more than -11%. However Yield will go up to around 6.5%. If CMT fundamental is solid, do stock price matter for a dividend player mid to long term ? In fact for a million dollar asset invested, you will get 65K which some will be elated instead of just 58K currently.

What will the stock price and yield be after the funan site has re-developed complete ?


Cory
20170128


Notes:

"CMT’s current portfolio comprises 16 shopping malls which are strategically located in the suburban areas and downtown core of Singapore 

- Tampines Mall, Junction 8, Funan (formerly known as Funan DigitaLife Mall), IMM Building (“IMM”), Plaza Singapura, Bugis Junction, Sembawang Shopping Centre, JCube, a 40.0% stake in Raffles City Singapore (“RCS”) held through RCS Trust, Lot One Shoppers’ Mall, 90 out of 91 strata lots in Bukit Panjang Plaza, The Atrium@Orchard, Clarke Quay, Bugis+, a 30.0% stake in Westgate held through Infinity Mall Trust (“IMT”) and Bedok Mall held through Brilliance Mall Trust (“BMT”)."

"CMT owns approximately 14.1% interest in CRCT, the first China shopping mall REIT listed on the SGX-ST in December 2006.'

Cory Diary : 2017 Chicken Out

Did my second speculative trade of the year for fun. This is after I notice there is still some upside for Keppel since last year low. By the way I am no fan of Oil and Gas or Ships. And no margins. Saw my profit went up to more than $800 before it came crashing down after the poor result announced. This hit me back to fundamental reality or am I ?

Nevertheless I Chicken Out and close my positions with some Ang Pao money for the year.






The XIRR is 82% because I achieved $382 profits within the month - short period. If I am able to continuous perform of similar periods to full year, it would have been 82% returns of my investment. This would also mean keppel stock price will have to jump by similar amount from my entry position which is unlikely to happen.

Understanding another way, the actual return is 3.2% for less than a month effort. For same performance throughout the year, this will be 82% due to investment compounding of the 3.2%
.

Cory
20170128

Jan 22, 2017

Cory Diary : Frasers Centrepoint Trust 1c17

I actually blogged a lot on FCT. My poor memory was thinking it was a year ago. (Corrected)
















Key Takeaway

NAV $1.93. Last closing share price is $1.965. Slightly above book value. Management has said they will maintain 100% payout of roughly 5.9% yield.

The AEI trough expects in May'17 and recover after. AEI completion in Sept'17. Expecting possible further few percentage reduction in NPI in the next report.

Gearing at 29.7% and the weighted average debt maturity was 2.6 years. The all-in average cost of borrowings in 1Q17 was 2.1%. FCT has approximately 56% of its borrowings on fixed or hedged-to-fixed interest rates. Good !

There is potential of lower share price for 1st half of 2017 but I believe the dividends will be able to cover more than it. And with the potential boost in future DPU in the 2nd half of 2017, this maybe a relatively attractive stock to own.


Cory
20170122



Jan 21, 2017

Cory Diary : Financial Updates 20170121


How I will approach this is to have my Financial Charts up for evaluation. This data is computed automatically through excel. So theoretically I am able to produce them everyday with little effort.

The first chart is my Net Worth. I have this tracked since 2007 to see the Market crash horribly the next year. Unfortunately this is the furthermost that I have tracked as I would like to have data for another decade more. I find this chart fascinating because I am curious how net worth chart looks like in data over a long period. There is more than 9 years worth of data.

This year I added RED line to truly measure my Net Worth which include my Pension, CPF, Insurance Values and CPF Shares. I have the $ scale removed as usual for privacy.
















There is a slight divergence to my surprise between the lines. Does this mean my "locked Investment" is doing better in growth than my investable assets.

The other chart below is asset allocation. Net Property means Value after deducting outstanding loan.
I am still not investing enough. Feel rather bad myself so I may have to reduce it down to 30% this year. And if Market allows to 26% cash and FD.

Cash Buffer for property payment in SG Bank is over 6 years.  This may continue to go up if I stay employed as I am a Value Saver. I plan to maintain this high level of buffer.

Investment wise, 14% in Structured Returns lowers my overall portfolio returns. I hope to expand my Stock Equity if market allowed, by 6% allocation more to achieve better yield..



I am not doing much with CPF other than shifting enough into SA account to earn higher interest rates. The remaining OA CPF to further backup my housing loan. Overall, as you can see I am rather conservative in my financial but I am happy because I could be worst.

If you notice something striking or concern, feel free to comment.


Cory
20170121



Jan 12, 2017

Cory Diary : Value Spending


Since young there is not much money to spend. Will always use up my allowance on titbits, pencils, rubbers, meals etc. Looking back, there is not much to save anyway and spending what given is a kind of natural thing to do. In my mindset allowance given is for me to spend and my parents are really good at it on how much I really need on food, bus fare and some extras. So I could say in my childhood I have no concept about saving.

Upon adolescent, this comes to me naturally about spending what I have but there is no crave for things beyond my allowances given. I have never ask for increase to spend or buy something. Life to me is simple. Just spend what given. And it becomes a mental routine. Looking back at it, is quite amazing that I have never thought of how to increase my money or crave for things beyond. That's the "Nerd'iness" in me I guess.

When I started working, saving just grew by "itself". Often I took Taxi as needed, provide allowance to my parents and "toys" I need. Being on time for work is important and I am exchanging time with money. Parents are important to me and allowance is a naturally thing I have to do. To re-charge myself i indulge in personal interests. Every month there be some money left to build up on. Interestingly there is still no deliberate attempt to save. There is one important aspect though is that my overall expenses never exceeds what I had earn monthly. When time comes for marriage, housing, renovation and holidays there are no lack of money because my requirements are not high in the first place. And it occur to me as I grow older that I look for Value and Need. For example when I shop for aircon, there are different pricing and capability, and I will look for higher end key feature at the lower cost of what is available. Not the cheapest. There is no brand stigma. Samsung is one of them.

When I started to learn to buy stocks, I started with playing warrant shares because there is an affiliation on their ticks and  the savings required are not much but you must have some. Frankly my broker is more nervous than me when I allowed one stock to expire. She almost screamed at me. That's just $1500 many many year ago. No small sum and it doesn't strike me as an issue either. I made $10, 000 in my first few trades just based on a few investment logic. She is still my broker today and she is not complaining any more.

Till today this continues in my purchase of stocks for Value. Yes I have much more money today because I focus primarily on my work but expenses are still kept quite low level. More than 50% of my annual income are saved each year. Is not that I like to hoard the cash, is just that I do not know how to spend them all needlessly. There is no dedicate effort to save. Income just grow with the job which I focused on doing well. And with investment income taking off,  this really helps to put my financial in really good shape.


Cory
20170112




Jan 3, 2017

Cory Diary : Summary of 2016


We have Trump elected and Stock up. Continuing Oil crisis but a pickup of the Banking sector. Survived a retrenchment exercise and have a larger team. We have a shock during Bre-EXIT but market climbed back quickly erasing all the losses. Oil Price moves above $50 due to OPEC Agreement. We have weaken Gold Price of $1159. S$ weakened to support internal factors which is really good news at current scenario for Singapore.

Every year I have an investment plan for next. This year is different. I have yet thought through.
I need to read and travel more to think about it I guess :)

On Personal front for 2016,

Dividends Income
Dividends Income hits as expected. (updated for privacy)

Bonds
This year also mark my first foray into SSB of roughly 2% effective returns. This does lower my overall investment yield but gives a broader income base to complement my fixed deposits and loan repayment redundancy needs. For now, this works well as long as I am working.

Equity
XIRR is 4.3% which is lower than my earlier months mainly due to lower share price in a number of blue chips. While this still beats STI negative returns largely I feel my investment can do even better. Nevertheless I did well in avoiding major losses. Notably two of them are Starhub and MTQ.

Salary and Bonus
Nice adjustment this year and a relatively strong bonus. Nothing to shout about but again thankful for what has been given as they don't come free and easy.

Despite all given, what I am most grateful is that my team members are in Good Health and Happy.

Thank you God for all the Blessing.
Happy 2017 !


Cory
20170103